Oil at 18-month low on China date, US stocks

MARKETS-OIL:Oil at 18-month low on China date, US stocks

london  June 21, 2012, 16:28 IST

london  06 21, 2012, 16:30 IST

 

Brent crude oil hit an 18-month low of $91 per barrel on Thursday as the outlook for economic growth darkened, pointing to lower-than-expected energy consumption worldwide.

China's factory sector shrank for an eighth straight month in June as export order sentiment hit its weakest since early 2009, according to a survey indicating the country's economic trough may extend well into the third quarter.

The U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday signalled a weaker outlook and disappointed some investors who had hoped for aggressive steps to boost the world's top economy.

Demand also looks shaky in the euro zone where borrowing costs have risen and the health of the banks has worsened.

Brent crude oil futures for August fell $1.69 to a low of $91.00 per barrel, its weakest since December 2010, before recovering slightly to trade around $91.70 by 1040 GMT.

Front-month U.S. crude was down $0.80 at $80.65 per barrel, after earlier hitting an eight-month low of $79.92.

"It is a toxic combination of negative factors," said Eugen Weinberg, head of commodities research at Commerzbank.

"Disappointment over the economic situation, the euro zone crisis, high risk aversion and strong downward momentum all mean investors are staying away from oil."

"ALL VERY BEARISH"

On top of the negative macro-economic news, oil was also hit by news on Wednesday of an unexpected rise in U.S. crude inventories, which increased 2.86 million barrels, defying forecasts for a 1.1 million barrel decline, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Brent has so far fallen 10 percent this month and is now down almost 15 percent in 2012, despite a strong rally through the first two months of the year. It has slipped almost 30 percent from this year's peak above $128 in March.

Nearby Brent prices have fallen below forward futures for the first time in almost a year, pushing the front of the price curve into contango, a structure that is commonly associated with a weak and over-supplied market.

Three years ago the Brent contango widened to the point where oil companies and trading houses could make money by buying crude oil, storing it at sea and then selling later.

"If the Brent contango widens a bit further then we will have to worry about the return of floating storage options for Brent-related crude oils," said Olivier Jakob, a Swiss-based energy market analyst at Zug consultancy Petromatrix.

The U.S. Federal Reserve did little to bolster financial markets on Wednesday. While Chairman Ben Bernanke said it was ready to do more to help recovery, many investors hoping for a third round of quantitative easing which would have boosted investment flows into assets like oil were disappointed.

"In addition to the technical weakness of the market, the weak FOMC action has put more downside pressure on prices," said Ken Hasegawa a commodity sales manager at Newedge.

"The U.S. economy is not in good shape. You add Europe and a poor demand-supply situation, and the picture gets much worse. I can't see any support for crude prices now. It's all very bearish."

China's export orders were at the weakest since early 2009, according to the HSBC Flash Purchasing Managers Index, the earliest monthly indicator of China's industrial activity.

"Any indication that the Chinese economy is slowing more than expected will put further pressure on oil prices, and commodities," said Michael Creed, economist at National Australia Bank. (Editing by William Hardy)