US weighs next moves on arms supply to Ukraine in 'escalatory cycle'

Ukraine will push for still more advanced weaponry when the US convenes a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Brussels today to marshal new support for hardware and supplies

Before Russia’s February invasion of Ukraine, successive US administrations were cautious in sending lethal weapons to Kyiv. Nearly eight months into the conflict, the US and allies have delivered thousands of lightweight Javelin anti-tank missiles and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles and a slew of even more powerful weapons.
 

Ukraine will push for still more advanced weaponry when the U.S. convenes a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Brussels on Wednesday to marshal new support for hardware and supplies to the government of President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. He has said he expects agreement on “the new supply of other weapons and ammunition we need.”

Those demands will again present President Joe Biden and European leaders with a difficult question: How much is too much? Russia’s Vladimir Putin underscored the stakes last week with his renewed suggestion that he might resort to tactical nuclear weapons, and Russian officials argue that the US and its allies -- not their president -- are responsible for the escalation.

This time the stakes may be different. The meetings in Brussels come days after Russia launched a series of missile barrages on the capital Kyiv and other civilian targets, and pressure is high for NATO allies to respond. Many of those strikes were blocked by Western-supplied anti-missile systems, and that’s only fueling Ukrainian calls for even more.

Also read: NATO chief Stoltenberg says 'closely monitoring' Russia's nuclear forces

“With each subsequent Russian escalation, we give qualitatively more. And this has been going on now, a long time,” said Samuel Charap, a senior political scientist at the RAND Corp., who studies arms proliferation, Russia and Ukraine. “This is a pattern of escalatory spiral that’s been going on for months,” 

“The reason it’s normal now is because we’ve basically gradually adjusted to the idea,” Charap said. 

Almost eight months into the conflict, the US has gone beyond Stinger and Javelin missiles, providing HIMARS artillery systems and suicide drones. Under pressure for more, it’s accelerating delivery of an anti-missile system known as NASAMS, which were reserved until now for the US and NATO allies.

The conversation is still limited to weapons that can be portrayed as defensive, even as Ukraine and some eastern European nations such as Poland keep pushing for equipment like tanks and fighter jets that are seen as even more provocative.

The US and its allies have steadily filtered arms to Ukraine as it defends itself from the Russian attack and steadily increased the capabilities and range of the munitions. Since the early days of the war, the US has added new systems to its shipments -- including HIMARS rockets, howitzers, armored personnel carriers, Claymore munitions and new categories of armed drones. The question facing Biden is what new categories will be added to the list next.

Group of Seven leaders met virtually Tuesday with Zelenskiy and condemned the “deliberate Russian escalatory steps.” Biden said in a tweet Tuesday that the US would “support Ukraine for as long as it takes.”

In their statement, the G-7 leaders said that Russia’s “indiscriminate attacks on innocent civilian populations constitute a war crime” and that they would hold Putin “and those responsible to account.”

Zelenskiy made clear Tuesday that he wants more.

“The terrorist state must be deprived of even the thought that it can achieve something with any wave of terror,” Zelenskiy said of Russia in his nightly address.

There are already signs that the US is responding to the pressure. After a call with Biden on Monday, Zelenskiy said “we are doing everything in get modern air defense.” Biden responded that the US would continue providing Ukraine the support it needs, “including advanced air defense systems,” according to the White House.

The White House statement didn’t specify what systems Biden was talking about but on Tuesday, the Pentagon said in a statement that the US is speeding up the delivery to Ukraine of two NASAMS -- National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems -- by using existing parts instead of building the weapons from scratch.

But the US and allies have balked at other requests. The bloc has stopped short of giving Ukraine fighter jets, while the US and Germany are stuck on whether to send advanced battle tanks such as Abrams and Leopards. 

“I’m not ruling anything out,” US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said on Sept. 30, when asked about the tanks. 

In the G-7 statement, leaders said “any use of chemical, biological or nuclear weapons by Russia would be met with severe consequences.” 

Officials from NATO say this week’s meetings are about more than providing ever-bigger and better weapons. 

“It is also to ensure that we have the fuel or the ammunition to existing systems,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said. “Since the war is continuing, logistics, resupplies of spare parts, ammunition, fuel to systems that are already delivered becomes more and more important.”