The Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) under the ministry of textiles today avoided making any crop estimates of cotton for the year 2012-13 (Oct-Sept) sighting severe drought in major cotton growing areas in western India. Total acreage is estimated to fall to 11.03 million hectares. Gujarat is a major loser.
“We could not arrive at a conclusion on production estimate for the next season,” textile commissioner A B Joshi told reporters after the CAB meeting.
Weak monsoon in Gujarat, the largest producer of cotton in the country, has brought down cotton acreage to 2.2 million hectares from 2.96 million hectares in 2011-12, according to CAB.
“Saurashtra area has received less rainfall. Also, no further sowing will take place,” added Joshi.
Drought has been declared in 100 taluks in Maharashtra. However, Jalgaon is not affected, even as the crop in the Vidharbha region is good. Total acreage is likely to be near last year’s 4.1 million hectares.
The country's cotton production for 2011-12 cotton year (October- September) is estimated at 35.3 million bales (one bale = 170 kg) compared to the previous estimate of 34.7 million bales.
This cotton year, 12.7 million bales are estimated to be exported compared to 7.6 million bales last year. So far, 12.6 million tonnes have already been exported. Since CAB has not given crop estimates for 2012-13, it has refrained from providing any estimates for exports either. Industry sources said that if the cotton crop falls drastically, as feared, exports of cotton may be taken out of OGL. The textile ministry is also understood to have recommended putting cotton exports under the textile commissioner, as in the past.
India's cotton import for the current cotton year is estimated to be higher by 140 per cent at 1.2 million bales compared to 500,000 bales last year.
“This year India has imported even the non-traditional variety due to price differentiation, Indian prices were four to six cents higher than international prices,” said Joshi.
He added that cotton imports will continue for a few more months.
Mill consumption for the current cotton year is lower and is estimated to be at 21.7 million bales compared to 22.1 million bales last year.
Non-mill consumption for the current cotton year is estimated at 1.6 million bales, the same as last year.
Total demand for cotton is estimated at 38.2 million bales compared to 33.8 million bales last year.
Demand this year has seen a rise due to higher exports.
The closing stock for the current cotton year is estimated at 2.8 million bales, which is lower compared to last year's closing stock of 4.5 million bales.
China, the world’s top cotton buyer, has issued an additional 400,000 tonnes of cotton import quotas to textile mills to help them source more cheap international supplies, industry sources said on Thursday. Mills have been pushing the government to boost import quotas for supplies from abroad, where prices can be as much as 40 per cent lower than domestically. The new quota volume would bring total import quotas issued this year to about 2.8 million tonnes, including one million tonnes issued in May. "The NDRC has approved the quotas," said one industry executive, referring to the country's top planning body, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC).