Another bumper sugar output in the offing

Output to decline by a marginal 1%, high carryover stocks to lift supply to 38 million tonnes

The sugar season 2015-16 (October–September) is expected to remain another year of bumper production, says the Indian Sugar Mills Association (Isma).

At an estimated 28 million tonnes, output in 2015-16 is estimated to be a marginal one per cent less from the f 28.3 mt of 2014-15. With an estimated 10.4 mt of carryover stock, availability is expected to swell further to 38.4 mt. Including a carryover of 7.5 mt and production of 28.3 mt, availability for season 2014-15 was 35.8 mt. Both the output and carryover stock were the second highest on record, after the 28.4 mt output and 11 mt of carryover in 2006-07.

"Based on the satellite images procured in June 2015, we have projected total cane acreage at around 5.36 million hectares (ha) in sugar season 2015-16, which is almost similar to that of last 2014-15 (5.32 million ha). With this, sugar production is estimated at 28 million tonnes for 2015-16 season as against 28.3 million tonnes of the sweetener output reported in 2014-15," ISMA said.

ISMA, however, clarified that this is a preliminary forecast. Its first advance estimates will be released in September 2015, when satellite images will better capture fully matured crop. Therefore, sugar production forecast may be revised subsequently.

Sugar mills have produced 28.02 million tonnes of the sweetener until June-end and another 2,50,000 tonnes of output expected till September 30, the industry body forecast.

The crushing season 2015-16, however, India's total sugar consumption is estimated at at 25.2 million tonnes.

Cane acreage in Uttar Pradesh, leading sugarcane acreage state, is estimated to have achieved at 2.31 million ha, as against around same coverage area was seen in the previous year. ISMA is anticipating a better yield in SS 2015-16, which may increase the sugarcane production and availability for crushing by sugar mills. Thus, sugar production in U.P. is estimated to be around 7.35 million tonnes which would be about 3.5 per cent more than 7.1 million tonnes produced in SS 2014-15.

Similarly, cane area in Maharashtra which had a bumper in SS 2014-15, is likely to have a similar area this year at 1.06 million ha. Due to poorer rainfall than for SS 2014-15, yields may be affected in SS 2015-16. Therefore, sugarcane production is likely to be less than previous SS 2014-15. Maharashtra is expected to produce about 9.7 million tonnes of sugar, about 7.6 per cent lower than SS 2014-15.