Arabica coffee output estimates dip 40%

India’s arabica coffee production in 2008-09 (October-September) is expected to be lower than previous estimates owing to irregular blossom showers, said trade and market experts.

Arabica coffee output is likely to be 55,000-60,000 tonnes this year, down 35-40 per cent from post-monsoon estimates, said Ramesh Rajah, president, Indian Coffee Exporters Association. India’s arabica coffee production was pegged at around 90,050 tonnes in the 2008-09 post-monsoon estimate, against an output of 92,500 tonnes in 2007-08, according to statistics by Coffee Board of India.

Blossom showers experienced in key growing areas in November-December are likely to result in the lower output. Ideally, these showers occur in early March in areas growing arabica crop and in early February in growing areas of robusta crop, said Rajah.

India’s robusta coffee production is also seen down nearly 10-15 per cent from previous estimate of 186,550 tonnes.

Last year, the country’s robusta coffee output stood at 169,500 tonnes. Sharp fall in arabica coffee output is likely to pull down India’s overall coffee production by 15-20 per cent from prior estimates, Rajah said.India’s coffee output in the current crop year is expected to be around 230,000-240,000 tonnes.

Output in the 2008-09 post-monsoon estimate was pegged at 276,600 tonnes. India’s total coffee output stood at 262,000 tonnes in 2007-08. Domestic coffee prices are expected to remain firm in the near-term due to steady growth in domestic demand and decline in production, traders and analysts said.

“Coffee prices may appreciate around 5-7 per cent from current levels in the near-term, while prices are likely to rise around 15-20 per cent by the end of the current calendar year,” said Gnanasekar Thiagarajan, director, Commtrendz Risk Management Services.

International prices may remain stable on expectation of good demand and prices may trade in the range of $1.50-$1.60 a pound (Rs 160.81-171.53). Today, raw arabica parchment at Chikmanglore spot markets in Karnataka was priced at Rs 5,700-5,800 per 50 kg.