Covid-19 vaccine, related updates, F&O expiry to drive D-Street next week

Indian equity markets are likely to witness volatility this week due to concerns over rising cases of coronavirus and expiry of derivatives contracts, analysts said.

Further, progress surrounding the COVID-19 vaccine, related updates, US stimulus talks and global cues would dictate the market trend, traders said.

"Going ahead, the market is likely to be volatile as sentiments oscillate between fear of rising COVID cases globally and optimism over vaccine progress. Investors would closely watch out development over the US stimulus talks," said Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.

Going ahead, markets could make an intermediate top with correction in front-line stocks. India Inc's quarterly results have come to an end and markets are likely to keep an eye on global clues and/or any major updates related to the vaccine for any direction, said Nirali Shah, Senior Research Analyst, Samco Securities.

According to Shah, bourses are likely to witness bouts of buying in the lower order stocks hinting a catch-up rally.

Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director of Choice Broking, said as the market is hovering near the all-time high levels, bourses are likely to witness volatility going ahead.

During the past holiday-shortened week, Sensex rose 439.25 points or 1.01 per cent, while Nifty advanced 139.10 points or 1.09 per cent.

On Friday, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) remained net buyers in the capital market as they purchased shares worth Rs 3,860.78 crore, according to provisional exchange data.

Markets traded with a few gap up openings last week owing to positive international clues. But soon the optimism receded and fears of a resurgence in cases of coronavirus, power tussle in the US and rich valuations led to a mild positive end to the week.

FIIs, with their massive liquidity strength, eventually are not buying as aggressively post the first two weeks of November, Shah said, adding that this points that optimism has reached its peak.

Global markets are moving cautiously amid a rise in the COVID-19 cases and conflicting views over US fiscal stimulus. The overall market momentum going forward will depend on the progress associated with the effectiveness of vaccine distribution, a major factor determining economic recovery, said Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services.

The market is expected to turn its focus to global events and progress in vaccine developments as we move to the end of the earning season accompanied by an absence of major domestic events in the week ahead, he noted.

Ajit Mishra, VP - Research, Religare Broking, expects volatility to remain high next week, due to the scheduled futures and options expiry of November monthly contracts.