Last month, many coffee-growing regions in Kodagu, Chikmagalur and Hassan districts of Karnataka received rains.
This is unusual and such unseasonal rains could damage arabica coffee plants, as they are in the early stages of flowering, according to KPA.
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Also, 2013-14 is an off-year for the robusta coffee variant and production will see a natural decline of 10-15 per cent, according to Gurjer. The overall coffee production for the next crop year could dip 10-15 per cent, he said.
Harvest for the 2012-13 season is about to come to an end in the growing regions. KPA estimates coffee production for the 2012-13 season at 290,000 tonnes.
Arabica and robusta break-up is pegged at 80,000 tonnes and 210,000 tonnes, respectively. The Coffee Board of India has pegged the post-monsoon crop forecast for 2012-13 at 315,000 tonnes. This includes 100,225 tonnes of arabica and 215,275 tonnes of robusta.
However, Gurjer said rains in the first week of March have cheered growers. The rains in March have acted as backing showers for rains in February. The daytime temperature had hit a peak of 33-34 degree Celsius, which is unusual again for the month of March. The rains will cool off the temperature. As most of the estates have completed their harvest for 2012-13 crop year, there is no adverse impact on the current year's crop, said Gurjer.
The early rains received so far could trigger early flowering in coffee plants. This may again need back-up showers to sustain at the end of March. "We can make exact prediction of crop size for next year by the middle of April," said Gurjer.
Rain showers in March are highly congenial for flowering of robusta and fruit setting in arabica. Another advantage of receiving early rains is that the growers need not spend on irrigation and power during this period, added Gurjer.
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