Emerging-market likely to extend rally: Morgan Stanley

Emerging-market equities may climb as much as 15 per cent in the “next few weeks,” tracking a pattern seen during the stocks’ initial rebound from the bear market that ended in 2001, according to Morgan Stanley.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index may climb 10 per cent to 15 per cent before enduring a “summer pull-back,” Jonathan Garner, Morgan Stanley’s London-based chief Asian and emerging-market strategist, wrote in a research note dated yesterday.

He maintained his 810 year-end target for the MSCI index, 33 per cent higher than yesterday’s closing level.

The MSCI index rose 2.3 per cent to 624.17 in early trade in London.

The benchmark for equities in 23 developing nations has rallied 37 per cent from a four-year low on October 27, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The MSCI index rose 48 per cent from its bear-market bottom on September 21, 2001, to April 18, 2002, then erased almost all those gains through October 10, 2002, Bloomberg data show.