Global cues, rupee, FII trend to dictate mkts this week

Experts note that markets would closely watch series of state polls this month ahead of general elections next year

With the July-September quarterly earnings season coming to an end, the focus will now shift to global cues which will determine the near-term trend for the domestic bourses, say analysts.

Besides, markets will monitor the investment trend by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) and movement of rupee against the US dollar.

Experts also noted that markets would closely watch a series of state polls this month ahead of the general elections next year.

"Indian markets will likely find support at levels of 5,900-6,000, which was the top-end of range of 2013. However, near-term trends will still remain range-bound, till the time we see clarity on any growth revival in Q1 CY14 or election results in Q2 CY14," said Rajat Rajgarhia, Director Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.

"IIP numbers and inflation figures have failed to give any cheer this time. So, global cues and currency movement in near term may direct Nifty trend," said Nidhi Saraswat, Senior Research Analyst, Bonanza Portfolio Limited.

Global markets had moved up on Thursday after Janet Yellen, nominated by President Barack Obama to lead the Fed, indicated the stimulus programme would continue. Yellen had said the US economy has farther to go to regain lost ground, according to a statement on the Fed website.

"A strong recovery will ultimately enable the Fed to reduce its monetary accommodation and reliance on unconventional policy tools," Yellen had said.

Indications that the US Fed will continue its stimulus programme had led to buying in the Indian stock market on Thursday when the benchmark Sensex advanced by 205 points after seven consecutive sessions of losses.

However, the Sensex made its second consecutive weekly loss over the last week, falling 266.73 points or 1.29%.
 
The rupee appreciated to 63.11 on Friday after RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan sought to reassure investors, saying there is no fundamental reason for the currency to fall again. He also pegged the CAD at a lower level than estimated earlier.