Gold may lose lustre in 2009: Barclays Capital

Despite the recent spike in the gold prices following Israel's attack on Gaza Strip and the worsening geo-political scenario, the current year may not be as good as last year. Many expect the average prices to be lower than last year.

The latest report by Barclays Capital forecasts gold to at least stabilise next year and supporting an uptrend in prices over the forthcoming months. The report says once the positive external get discounted in prices, and if no fresh catalyst emerge, gold prices may start to ease.

"Amid doubts and uncertainties," the consultancy forecasts the average gold price to ease 6 per cent in 2009 from the estimated average price of $870 seen during the previous year.

In the long term, however, the yellow metal could sink to $650, probably towards the end of 2010, the forecast says.

However, analysts have been saying that the expected crash of dollar will result in money moving to gold. This can drive gold up and the movement may be 20 per cent on either side of the forecast average price. At present gold is trading at $875 per ounce.

Gold Field Minerals Services had also earlier forecast the lower average price of gold in 2009 compared to 2008. GFMS is the leading academic agency doing research on gold. The agency’s next forecast, the most awaited by the bullion market, is due to be announced during the middle of the month.

Traders in Mumbai’s bullion market believe that the current momentum in gold prices will continue for some more time as some funds have been active in the market. Various liquidity packages have made some idle money available with financial institutions globally and that money is also chasing gold.

Gold has held up relatively well, falling by only a fifth from their peak compared with the 60 per cent falls seen in the more industrially-significant precious metals, such as platinum group metals (PGMs) and silver.

In general, gold has disappointed recently, failing to challenge the peaks of over $1,000 an oz it hit during Q1, 2008. Three key factors have held prices back. First, the dollar is stronger compared to the record lows it saw against major currencies in the first seven months of the year. Second, oil prices have fallen from their record highs. Third, inflation expectations have turned to deflationary fears.