Gold supply overshot demand in 2009

There was surplus global gold supply in 2009 for the first time in three years, as demand receded on soaring prices that hit consumers’ disposable incomes badly.

This was contrary to the perception that miners would respond quickly to weak demand and reduce their production, thereby keeping supply tight. Data from the World Gold Council (WGC), the agency funded by global miners for the yellow metal’s promotion, show that supply, at 3,890 tonnes in 2009, surpassed demand by 15 per cent. Total demand in the year was recorded at 3,386 tonnes.

The WGC attributed soaring prices as the primary reason for the weak result, as consumers’ disposable incomes did not keep pace with the rising cost of gold jewellery. Total identifiable demand, led largely by a poor show in jewellery, industrial and dental consumption, fell by 11 per cent in 2009 at 3,385.8 tonnes, as compared to 3,805.7 tonnes in the previous year. Jewellery consumption fell by 20 per cent to 1,747.3 tonnes, while industrial and dental consumption dipped by 16 per cent, to 367.6 tonnes.

In the current turbulent market, investment and paper gold consumption (exchange traded funds) emerged as a preferred choice, with the former growing by a marginal seven per cent (1,270.9 tonnes) and the latter by 85 per cent (594.7 tonnes).

The case is similar in India. Against the domestic supply of 513 tonnes in 2009, total offtake was estimated at 480 tonnes. The offtake was also 33 per cent lower than the previous year, at 712.6 tonnes. Nevertheless, India held on to its position as the world’s largest gold consuming nation in the year. Its jewellery demand in the fourth quarter of 2009 totalled 137.8 tonnes, up eight per cent from the previous quarter, and up 27 per cent from a very low fourth quarter of 2008.

Jewellery demand in the country in 2009 totalled 405.8 tonnes, down 19 per cent on the 501.6 tonnes in 2008. While this is the weakest result since 1995, it is worth stressing, yet again, the impact of the very weak first quarter result (due to the general gloomy economic mood).

Several factors came into play during that quarter, WGC said, to remedy matters subsequently. First, the announcement of a 200-tonne purchase by the Reserve Bank of India played a key role in underpinning sentiment and gold price expectations, reinforcing the perception that gold was reliable and safe.

Second, wedding-related purchases that had been put on hold finally started to come through.

Indian consumers sold back significant amounts of jewellery in the first quarter, expecting the opportunity to buy it back at a lower price. As the year progressed, “compulsory” wedding-related purchases were delayed as the waiting game continued and many consumers satiated their demand through exchange, i.e. exchanging old jewellery for new, WGC said.

The gold price in dollar terms in 2009, at an average of $972.35 an oz, was up 12 per cent on the $871.96 in 2008. In the fourth quarter, the price averaged $1,099.63 an oz, up a very strong 38 per cent on the levels of the fourth quarter of 2008.

WGC added that regardless of whether the economic recovery gathered momentum or stumbles in 2010, western investment demand would remain well-underpinned. If the global economy falters, then western investors would continue to look towards gold for its diversification and portfolio insurance properties, it added.