Grain production estimates up at 218 mn tonnes

The marginal revision is supported by higher-than-expected wheat, rice output.

The agriculture ministry made an upward revision in the country’s foodgrain production during 2009-10 in its third advance estimates announced on Wednesday to 218.19 million tonnes.

The ministry in its second estimates in February had put the figure at 216.85 million tonnes. The marginal revision is supported by the higher-than-expected wheat and rice output. However, it is almost 7 per cent lower than the previous year, because the kharif crop output was affected due to drought. In 2008-09 foodgrain production stood at a record 233.88 million tonnes.
 

BETTER PROSPECTS

Crop

Fourth
advance
estimates
2008-09 Third
advance
estimates
2009-10 Rice99.1589.31 Wheat80.5880.98 Pulses 14.6614.77 Maize19.2916.32 Coarse cereals 39.4833.13 Oilseeds28.1625.41 Cotton#23.1622.83 (Figures in million tonnes)
#million bales of 170 kg
Source: Ministry of Agriculture

Due to deficient and erratic distribution of rainfall during the last monsoon, production of most kharif crops had been affected adversely. A substantial drop has been projected in the main kharif crops like rice, maize, oilseeds and coarse cereals. This has lead to a spike in food prices and caused a surge in food inflation, which almost touched 20 per cent in December last year.

Food inflation, however, softened after the rabi crop harvest at 16.04 per cent for the week ended April 24.

The good news is that the country’s wheat production is estimated to beat the previous year’s record of 80.68 million tonnes, reaching 80.98 million tonnes in 2009-10. While wheat output was revised upwards to 80.98 million tonnes from 80.28 million tonnes, rice was raised from 87.56 million tonnes to 89.31 million tonnes.

However, the oilseeds output estimates saw a dip. Foodgrain output has been pegged higher at 218.19 million tonnes, from 216.85 million tonnes. Oilseeds production is estimated at 25.40 million tonnes, from 26.32 million tonnes in the February estimate.

Pulses output is seen marginally higher at 14.77 mt compared with 14.74 mt in the previous estimates. The country produced 14.57 mt pulses last year.

The estimates pegged sugarcane production for the year at 274.66 mt, sharply higher than the February estimate of 251.27 mt, but lower from last year's 285.03 mt.

Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar earlier this month pegged India's year to September sugar output at around 18.5 mt, up nearly 4 mt on year, on higher cane yields seen in key sugar producing states of Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra.

Sugar prices have significantly fallen to around Rs 3,000 a quintal from the January-end peak of over Rs 4,800 on tight government controls and higher output expectations.