Its Virtually 2002-03s First Trading Day

Thursday will be virtually the beginning of fiscal 2002-03 for the markets as trades executed on the day will be settled in April under the current T+5 rolling segment owing to a few holidays falling next week.

Rolling settlement could also be brought under T+3 cycle in the next month. The expectation was fuelled by a marginal 21 points rise in the Bombay Stock Exchange Sensex today against the overnight level.

The rise in Sensex was beyond expectation today, the closing day of the last settlement cycle of the current financial year on the twin exchanges of Mumbai, as operators generally hammer down Sensex on the last settlement day while squaring up their positions.

The Calcutta Stock Exchange (CSE) closed its last settlement cycle of this year on Tuesday.

Buoyed by today's rise in Sensex, operators began dreaming about turning around of the market but no one dared to hazard a guess on the index.

"There is a strong possibility that the bourses may start going up from tomorrow as tomorrow is virtually the beginning of the financial year 2002-03. However, there is nothing attractive on the horizon which can infuse fresh blood into the ailing secondary market," a CSE member said.

Rajesh Agarwal, an analyst working with CD Equisearch, said the market was expecting a bull run since Diwali which did not happen.

"Since then, the turnaround was being "deferred by excuses". After Diwali it was told that market would revive in the New Year, then after the Union Budget and lastly as soon as the Ayodhya face-off was over. The market is not fundamentally different from what it was during the last bull run. The only difference is that it badly needs a push," he added.

However, Agarwal was candid in saying that there was no real long term investors and therefore the current activities were "artificial" in some extent. He chose not to blame the retail investors for keeping out of the ring.

"It is the responsibility of the operators to push up the trend to a desired level. If the bourses keep rising for, say, three months, the retail investors will join the bandwagon," he added.