Market outlook FY22: Targets for Sensex, Nifty and other key indices

The Sensex and Nifty indices are eyeing up to 12 per cent upside from current levels, charts show

Despite facing headwinds over the past one week, markets are set to register their best financial year performance in a decade. Thus far in FY21, the S&P BSE Sensex and Nifty50 have rallied 66 per cent and 69 per cent, respectively. Meanwhile, the gains in mid-and small-caps have been sharper with both the indices rallying 111 per cent and 89 per cent, respectively on the BSE.

The rally has been partly on account of strong foreign inflows on expectation of improvement in the economy after a stringent pandemic-triggered lockdown for a few months in FY21. Accommodative monetary policies of global central banks, especially the US, ensured emerging markets, including India, remained flushed with funds all through the year.

During the year, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) pumped in a record $37 billion (Rs 2.74 trillion) into equities (up to March 26), which is the highest since FY13, data from the National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) show.

Here's how you should trade the markets in FY22:

S&P BSE SENSEX

Likely target: 54,000 - 55,100

Upside potential : 8.32% - 10.53%

The index is constantly making efforts to conquer the 50-days moving average (DMA) placed at 50,060 levels. Once the Relative Strength Index (RSI) manages to aggressively cross 50-value, the upside bias is expected to receive higher interest of market participants. The medium-term outlook is well placed above 48,000 levels. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART

NIFTY50

Likely target: 16,000 - 16,500

Upside potential: 8.40% - 11.79%

The positive crossover of 50-weekly moving average (WMA) with 100-WMA shows a positive bias from a medium-term scale. This breakout is expected to gain momentum above the 15,000-mark, as per the weekly chart. As long as the index defends the 14,500-mark on the weekly scale, the upside sentiment is here to stay. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART
 
NIFTYBANK

Likely target: 36,000 – 36,850

Upside potential: 7.56% - 10.10%

The recent weakness has made the index test the monthly breakout level of 32,000-mark. That said, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has crossed the zero line upward, indicating that upward bias is intact, as per the monthly chart. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART

NIFTY IT

Likely target: 27,500 – 28,000

Upside potential: 6.36% - 8.29%

The index is currently hovering around 50-DMA placed at 25,629 levels. The index may see the next leg of rally above the resistance zone of 26,500-mark. Moreover, even as the RSI is trading in the overbought condition, the index is not witnessing any major breakdown, as per monthly chart. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART

NIFTY AUTO

Likely target: 10,450 – 10,750

Upside potential: 5.43% - 8.45%

The index is firmly holding the support of 100-DMA placed at 9,734 levels. The upside bullishness is intact with the positive crossover of 50-WMA and 100-WMA. The immediate resistance falls at 50-DMA around 10,450 levels. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART

NIFTY FMCG

Likely target: 38,000 – 40,000

Upside potential: 9.51% - 15.27%

The index has managed to break above the monthly resistance range of 33,000 – 32,500 levels. Now, along with the positive crossover of MACD, the trend is heading towards higher levels of 40,000 from a medium to long term perspective. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART

NIFTY REALTY
Likely target: 340 – 352

Upside potential: 3.34% - 7.00%

The index needs to cross the hurdle of 340 levels to see a rally towards 352-mark. Currently, the index is exhibiting weakness with the support placed at 320 levels. The volume may favour the trend only above the breakout of 340 mark. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART

NIFTY METAL
Likely target: 4280 – 4,400

Upside potential: 6.68% - 9.67%

The index is firmly holding the strength above 200-WMA placed at 3,012-mark and is witnessing buying momentum in the overbought territory of the weekly RSI. Supported by a trendline breakout, the momentum is expected to take the index towards higher levels, as per the daily chart. The immediate support comes at 3,800 levels. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART