Markets at a glance

Concerns about the burgeoning sovereign debt of some European countries and weak US jobs data were overhangs on the broader indices. The Sensex fell in 4 out of 5 trading sessions in the week. The Sensex declined 567 points or 3.5 per cent to 15,791 during the week, while Nifty fell 163 points or 3.3 per cent to 4,719.

Mid caps and small caps performed better with the respective indices falling by 2.5 per cent and 1.9 per cent, respectively. Food inflation, which inched higher for the week to 17.56 per cent did not bring any cheer. On a positive note, exports are showing signs of rebound, while imports too are gathering pace.

What to expect this week

Global cues look weak with Europe’s fiscal woes still lurking in the background. Reversal of dollar-carry trade could also hit emerging market stocks. On the domestic front, HSBC Markit surveys on business and manufacturing activity are at 16-month highs which is a positive for the market.

The market will keep an eye out for a series of data be it on GDP, IIP or Inflation. While the CSO will release advance estimates of GDP growth for 2009-10 on Monday, IIP data will be released on February 12. Industrial output in November was higher at 11.7 per cent compared to the year ago period. Inflation numbers for the week ended January 30 will be out on Thursday.

 

Stock to watch
Patni Computer
Last week's close (Rs) 448.20 
Prev. week's close (Rs) 464.05 
Week's high (Rs) 485.50 
Week's low (Rs) 438.00 
Last week's ave. daily turnover (Rs cr) 6.85 
Prev. week's ave. daily turnover (Rs cr) 12.63 
Number of up/down move 2/3

The Patni Computer stock could witness action as the company would announce numbers for the fourth quarter on Wednesday. Rupee revenue is expected to be flat on q-o-q basis at Rs 795-800 crore, while EBITDA could come at 20-20.5 per cent for the quarter.

Net profits are estimated to increase 6.5-7 per cent over the September quarter partly boosted by forex gains compared to forex losses of about of Rs 10.9 crore in the previous quarter.

Any positive surprises could drive the stock higher from the present levels. At Rs 457.2, the stock is trading at 14.6 times its 12-month EPS of Rs 31.