Can MCX Gold futures drop below Rs 50,000 in May? Key levels to watch out

The MCX Gold futures seem to be facing considerable resistance around Rs 52,250 as per the monthly charts. Similarly, the upside for Silver seems likely to be capped around Rs 64,200-64,750 odd levels

Gold

Bias: Caution advised

Last close: Rs 51,760

Resistance: Rs 52,250

Support: Rs 50,800

The MCX Gold futures were seen consolidating over the last few weeks in the broad range of Rs 50,500 to Rs 53,500-odd levels. As per the weekly charts, the bias is likely to remain positive as long as Gold prices sustain above Rs 50,100-odd level - which is the 20-WMA (Weekly Moving Average). On the upside, Gold futures can rally up to Rs 54,000.

However, the monthly charts indicate that MCX Gold futures attempted to breakout of the higher-end of the Bollinger Band in the last two months, and failed on a closing basis. The charts, indicate, existence of resistance around Rs 52,250-odd levels. Gold prices need to sustain above Rs 52,250-odd levels for a strong upward momentum to emerge. Failure to do so, can trigger a correction towards Rs 48,500-odd levels on the longer time-frame.

The daily charts indicate a mixed outlook for the precious commodity. Prices have remained dampened below the 20-DMA (Daily Moving Average) for the last six trading sessions. The 20-DMA at Rs 52,050-odd level and 50-DMA at Rs 51,850-odd level are the immediate resistance for MCX Gold prices. 

On the downside, Gold futures can test the lower-end of the Bollinger on the daily charts, indicating a target of Rs 50,800, below which the bears are likely to have the upper hand.

As per the monthly Fibonacci charts, MCX Gold June futures may seek support around Rs 50,675 - 50,350 - 50,000; whereas on the upside, the Gold prices can face resistance around Rs 52,380 - 52,840 - 53,500.

This week, MCX Gold June futures may seek support around Rs 51,280 - 51,120 - 50,965; and resistance can be expected around Rs 52,050 - 52,250 - 52,550.

Similarly, Gold Mini May futures are likely to move in a broad range of Rs 50,315 to Rs 53,440 this month. Gold can seek support around Rs 50,915 - 50,615 -50,315, while may face resistance around Rs 52,435 - 52,845 - 53,440.

This week, MCX Gold Mini May futures may look for support around Rs 51,450 - 51,315 - 51,185; whereas the prices are likely to face expected around Rs 52,125 - 52,310 - 52,570.

Silver

Bias: Negative

Last Close: Rs 63,556

Resistance: Rs 64,200

Support: Rs 61,870

As of Friday, April 29, MCX Silver futures had witnessed a steep fall of 10.2 per cent in the last nine trading sessions. Silver now trades below all its key moving averagaes on the daily charts. The near hurdles for Silver are likely to be the 100-DMA and 200-DMA placed around Rs 64,200-odd levels. 

As per the weekly charts, the MCX Silver May futures seem headed towards the lower-end of the Bollinger Band, indicating a target of Rs 58,850-odd level. 

Among the key momentum oscillators, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence and Divergence) has just turned negative on the weekly charts, and the ADX too is extremely firm, indicating that bears are likely to have the upper hand for now. The momentum oscillators on the daily charts too are in favour of a downside.

The broader trend indicates significant resistance for Silver around Rs 64,750-odd levels, while on the downside, prices can dip towards Rs 57,850-odd levels.

As per the monthly Fibonacci charts, the MCX Silver May futures are likely to move in a broad range of Rs 58,940 to Rs 68,170, with support expected around Rs 61,900 - 60,700 - 59,820. On the upside, Silver prices can face resistance around Rs 65,200 - 66,400 - 67,300.

The weekly Fibonacci charts, indicates key support levels for Silver futures at Rs 62,500 - 62,200 - 61,870; whereas resistance can be expected around Rs 64,150 - 64,600 - 65,250.

Silimarly, MCX Silver Mini June futures may seek support around Rs 63,750 - 63,460 - 63,170; while may face resistance around Rs 65,230 - 65,630 - 66,210 this week.

Further, the MCX Silver Micro June futures could seek support around Rs 63,635 - 63,300 -62,970 and might face resistance around Rs 65,340 - 65,800 - 66,470 this week.