Monsoon rainfall advances, sowing to intensify

IMD data showed actual deficit narrowing down to 6% of Long Period Average for the period June 1-July 3, 2016 from 11% till last week

The increase in intensity and coverage of rainfall over the past weekend has resulted into a sharp decline in the deficit so far this monsoon season. Rain forecast to cover the remaining uncovered parts of Rajasthan and Gujarat in 48 hours.

Data compiled by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) showed the rain deficit had narrowed to six per cent of the Long-Period Average (LPA) for the period between June 1 and July 3, from 11 per cent till last week. LPA is the average rainfall for the past 50 years. Both the northwest and southern Peninsula have received excess rain, while east and northeast continue to face a sharp decline.

“The monsoon has further advanced into some more parts of Gujarat, most parts of east Rajasthan, the remaining parts of Punjab and Haryana, Chandigarh , Delhi and some parts of Rajasthan. The conditions are favourable for further advance of into the  remaining parts of north Arabian sea, Gujarat and Rajasthan during the next 48 hours,” said IMD.

About 70 per cent of cultivable land in India is sown for the kharif crop with the onset of seasonal rain. Most cultivable land remains rainfed. Paddy, maize, most varieties of oilseeds and some varieties of pulses are grown with the help of monsoon rain. It also sets the trend for rabi sowing, for which planting starts in September-October, depending on soil moisture after kharif harvest.  

“Even as the June rains were disappointing, we are not worried, as July rains matter more (for crop output) and they are forecast to improve. Assuming rains recover in July, we expect kharif output growth to rise to 3.2 per cent year-on-year in 2016 (versus minus 3.2 per cent in 2015). This, coupled with a weak base, should push up agriculture growth to 3.6 per cent in FY17 from 1.2 per cent in FY16, adding 30 basis points to headline gross domestic product growth,” said Sonal Verma, an analyst with Nomura.

The early deficit of monsoon rain affected sowing. Data compiled by the agriculture ministry showed a 23 per cent decline in the area under various agricultural crops so far this season. As of July 1, the actual acreage coverage area under kharif sowing stood at 21.59 million hectare this year, compared to 27.93 million ha the same day last year.

The significance of the monsoon rainfall and its even distribution can be gauged from the fact that most agri and economy-related policy decisions are based on monsoon rainfall.

Aditi Nayar, senior economist at ICRA, said: “The below-average rains in June are likely to give way to surplus rainfall in the subsequent months. The expectation of an above-average volume of rain in 2016 is a relief after the deficits in the last two years, although the likely temporal distribution is less than ideal. Regional variations would impact the outlook for specific crops, such as sugar.”

IMD has projected rainfall over the country to exceed LPA by seven per cent and four per cent, respectively, during July and August 2016, thereby washing away the June deficit.