RBI meeting will dictate the trend

TECHNICALS

The markets opened on a cautious note and ended with marginal gains as players were in an optimistic mood on the eve of the RBI meet. The traded volumes were lower as the retail players abstained from enhancing commitments.

The market breadth was positive as the combined advance decline ratio stood at 2604 : 1222. The f&o data indicated a lower turnover even as the bears did not square up significant shorts on declines.

The indices have closed at the upper end of the intraday band as the bulls prevailed over the bears. The buoyant midcap index indicates an expanded retail risk appetite. The market internals turned positive, a positive sign on an uptick session. The intraday range for Monday advocated at the 4400 / 4200 held as the index traded within these thresholds.

The coming session is likely to witness a range of 4400 on advances and 4240 on declines. The bullish pivot for the session will be 4325, above which the spot Nifty must trade consistently to be firm. On the flip side, the bearish pivot will be the 4300 level, below which the bears will remain in charge.

The market internals indicate a lower turnover as the participation levels fell due to the volatility and the impeding news trigger. The number of trades decreased and the average ticket size was lower, indicating a weak buying bias. The capitalisation of the market was higher in line with an uptick session.

The outlook for the markets on Tuesday is that of cautious optimism as the RBI meet is likely to be the trend determinator. The overseas cues will be additional catalysts in the near term.

Vijay L. Bhambwani
(CEO- BSPLindia.com)

The author is a Mumbai-based investment consultant and invites feedback at vijay@BSPLindia.com

Mandatory disclosure: the analyst has no exposure to any scrip/s recommended above.