Sensex To Move Within 2,700-3,000 Range Till Dec: Poll

The stock markets have bottomed out at current levels and may witness a sharp decline only if the US wages a war against Afghanistan, fund managers and brokers here said.

What is more, the sensex is expected to move within the 2700-3200 range till December.

These are among the findings of a snap telephonic poll of 12 fund managers and brokers conducted by Business Standard on Monday and Tuesday. The respondents were invited to comment on six issues: where the sensex would be by the end of the calendar year; what would be the position of foreign institutional investors (FIIs) in the Indian markets; what would be the impact of the Reserve Bank of India's decision to allow banks to fund margin trading; the direction of the market; and which sectors investors should keep a lookout for.

Fund managers think that despite some selling by FIIs, overseas investors will stay put in the country and net inflows are likely to rise by at least 10 per cent on a year-on-year basis.

But measures like allowing banks to fund margin trading and hiking the foreign portfolio investment limit are expected to have a positive impact only in the long run, fund managers point out.

Though the fallout of the war has been factored in by the market, the general sentiment is uncertain and a clear trend will emerge only at the end of the current calendar year or in the beginning of 2002, fund managers and brokers feel.

Amidst the uncertainties, most fund managers say that any losses in the Indian markets will be limited since the Indian economy is relatively insulated from the global economy compared with other emerging markets.