The Street in the mountains

Several listed firms, such as GVK, L&T and Lanco, had been building projects on the flooding rivers in Uttarakhand. Each suffered different levels of damage and losses

Like the roads in flood-hit Uttarakhand, the Street is conspicuous by its absence in the mountain state. The Oswals, Infolines and Angels are hardly there once you have climbed up the Ganga's level.

It is not clear what has led to this phenomenon. Is it just the remoteness and difficult access? That can't be the reason. A few months ago, I'd seen brokers operating in more remote areas, such as Phalodi and Pokhran in Rajasthan. Does this mean the Rajasthanis are born with equity in their blood-stream and Garhwalis are genetically conservative people? Or, is it because the "son-in-law" has yet to unlock in the mountains the value he saw in the deserts of Rajasthan to put money in the hands of potential investors?

Who will reach Garhwal first - the "son-in-law" or the brokers? This was a lingering question in my mind as I was trekking and hitching rides to move up the Himalayas.

The other lingering question was why the disaster in Uttarakhand was not a factor for the stock markets. How many of the thousands who died or went missing had stocks and other investments? How many had given detailed accounts to others in their families so that they could claim those? What if the nominees, too, are also gone, as entire families were washed away in some cases?

The third question was the impact of the flood on companies and stock prices. Several listed firms, such as GVK, L&T and Lanco, had been building projects on the flooding rivers. Each suffered different levels of damage and losses. Their project timelines have been set back by at least a couple of years. Some commissioned projects like that of NHPC in Dhauliganga has also been damaged.

What will be the impact on the earnings? How much should these stocks correct? Why are companies keeping quiet on the extent of damage and losses and rebuilding timelines?

On the flip side, a majority of the vehicles plying in the mountains are from the Mahindra & Mahindra stable. While the Maxx is the most common, other models like the Bolero and pick-ups, too, are widely used. Tata's Sumo is the other popular brand.

Going by this assessment, a majority of the hundreds of vehicles washed away would also be of Mahindra/Tata make. What number of these will be replaced? Will this add to the automakers' bottom line? Should the stocks go up then? What about cement and construction stocks? Will these benefit from the reconstruction demand?

As I was walking towards the Gauchar air base, I got an answer for at least one of these questions. Govind Singh was running the ICICIdirect.com unit there. "I have about 60 customers. People here are largely government servants. They are very scared of investing in the market."

Singh himself got introduced to the markets while working in the army. "A brigadier used to play in stocks. When I asked him to teach me, he said I wouldn't understand." Singh took it as a challenge. "Dunia mein aisi kaun si cheez hai jo manushya ne banaya hai aur hum samajh nahi sakte (What is it on earth that man has created and we cannot understand)? It might take a bit of time but could surely be understood."

Singh opened an account with ICICI and started buying for Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 - whatever little surplus he got. "After understanding and gaining confidence, I invested my savings of Rs 1.32 lakh around 2004. By 2008, this amount swelled to Rs 16 lakh." Several stocks gave him "20-30 times" returns. That's when he decided to start on his own. "But the last four years have been nightmarish," he says.

Mountains or plains, there's no escaping the bears.