TPO-based resistance seen around 5,612

The Nifty March futures settled with a marginal gain after sharp intra-day volatility. The futures closed at a premium to spot and saw short-covering. The trade summary matrix (TSM) change of hands as the participants preferred to cash in 120 points intra-day volatility through a series of buy-sell action. The traders were wary of building fresh positions as the open interest (OI) in the March futures remained unchanged at 21.80 million shares despite significantly higher volume of 32 million shares.

The Nifty is likely to face its first hurdle at 5,580-5,602. The OI build-up in the 5,400-put options suggests support while the build-up at 5,600-call options hints at resistance. The initial balance range (5,500-5,540) saw 36 per cent volume and TPOs from floor traders, mostly of buy-side trades. The volume in IB range indicates consolidation at those levels. The TSM data showed 25 per cent volume above 5,560, mainly through change of hands as the participants preferred to book profit and also covered short-positions above that level.

The market picture chart hints at a volume-base upside at 5,607 and price wise selling pressure above 5,627. The March futures manage to move past 5,627, the volume driven target is seen at 5,667. The MKTP data hint at a volume-based surge for March futures around 5,637. The spot Nifty is expected to move up to around 5,592 and is likely to face TPO-based resistance around 5,612.

The short-covering in the 5,700 and 5,800-call options and OI build-up of 1.33 million shares in 5,900-strike call options hints at a significant upside, if the index closes above 5,667. The participants have built-up fresh positions of 1.36 million shares in the 5,600-strike call which indicates near term possibility of a close above 5,600.

As expected, Bank Nifty achieved the target of 11,110 to close at 10,947. It is expected to move above 11,110, while TPO-based support is seen around 10,550. State Bank of India is likely to get the TPO-based resistance at 2,732 and volume-based support at 2,652. The strong support for ICICI Bank is seen at 985 with upside resistance at 1,041.