Week Ahead: Expect a bout of profit booking

MACRO TECHNICALS

The Nifty closed at 5,228.2 points for a gain of 2.28 per cent, while the Sensex was up 2.77 per cent at 17,125 points. The Defty was up only 0.81 per cent as the rupee dipped to Rs 40.65 a US dollar.

Breadth was good with advances outnumbering declines though gains were uneven. Volumes picked up in the last three sessions. The Nifty Junior was up 4.46 per cent, while the Nifty Midcap 50 rose 4.39 per cent. The BSE 500 was ahead by 2.88 per cent. Both sets of institutional investors were net buyers, but the FIIs bought more heavily.

Outlook: Profit-taking and a pullback to the 5,100 level or even 5,050 is likely early next week. There is massive resistance above 5,200 and all the way upto 5,300. If that 5,300 resistance is broken and the Nifty closes above 5,300, there could be a target of 5,500.

Rationale: The market ran into resistance above 5,200 and although it hit an intra-day peak of 5,298, it could not sustain it. The intermediate trend has now been positive for six weeks, which is unusually long for a bear market. Momentum indicators such as the RSI and ROC are in overbought territory.

Counterview: The move has picked up volume as its hit new peaks. It is possible that, even in a bear market, an intermediate uptrend could continue to run for another 5-6 weeks. If so, a target of 5,500 would be achievable. On downside, there is strong support between 5,050 and 5,100.

Bulls & Bears: The IT sector has been a big driver as the rupee has weakened