World rice yield to hit record levels

There has not been much change in acreage, from 157 million hectare in 1999 to 159 million hectare in 2008. Paddy output, though, has risen 8.82 per cent now, from the level of 612 million tonnes in 1999.

The increase could become more pronounced if recent appeals and incentives by a number of countries to grow rice translate into a larger expansion of plantings than currently anticipated.

Most of the expansion will take place in developing countries, foremost in Asia but also in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbeans, while developed countries are likely to experience a decline for the fourth consecutive year.

Meanwhile, FAO revised its 2007 estimates of paddy output upward by 7 million tonnes, from the December 2007 forecast, reflecting better than expected crops in all regions.

According to the new forecast at 652 million tonnes (435 million tonnes in milled rice equivalent), global production would be 1.4 per cent more than in 2006, with the entire increase coming from Asia, since all the other regions incurred a contraction.

For the first time, paddy production in Asia may cross the 600 million tonne benchmark in 2008. The current forecast, at 605 million tonnes, would represent a rise of 2.1 per cent and a 13 million tonne increase over 2007.

The forecast for world rice trade in 2008 has been lowered to 28.8 million tonnes in December 2007, largely reflecting more difficult access to international supplies after a growing number of countries imposed restrictions on exports.