Arvind Panagariya: Congress' NYAY scheme does not have 'incentive compatibility'; PM Modi will return to power

Former vice chairman of Niti Aayog Arvind Panagariya said that Congress' NYAY scheme does not have "incentive compatibility" in comparison with NDA's PM-KISAN. He believes that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will once again form the government in upcoming Lok Sabha elections.

"Scientifically, we should wait for the poll results, but I have seen that even their results are mostly not true. If I give my analysis on this, then in 2019 Lok Sabha election, approximately the same result will come out as it was in 2014. Prime Minister Narendra Modi will win again with almost the same majority," Panagariya told ANI here.

Congress president Rahul Gandhi had earlier announced that if his party comes to power at the Centre after the Lok Sabha polls, he will implement a "ground-breaking" NYAY scheme under which 20 per cent of the poorest families of the country will be entitled to get up to Rs 72,000 per year or Rs 6,000 every month.

However, Panagariya feels there is a "big issue of credibility" in it.

"They have said this, but will they be able to do it? They had said that they will waive off loan of farmers in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh within 10 days after coming into power in these states. But they have still not done it. There are a lot of hurdles in this NYAY scheme. In total, they will need Rs 3.6 lakh crore for this scheme, which is 13 per cent of the total budget of the central government. Nobody has said how they will get this much money to implement this scheme. This is even more than our Defence budget," he said.

"PM-KISAN gives Rs 6,000 per year to farmers. The total money spent on it will be around Rs 75,000 crore. It is also a big investment, but not in comparison with NYAY scheme. The government has properly mentioned in its budget, how it will get Rs 75,000 crore to spend on PM-KISAN. But Congress has not given any detailed budget on how they will implement NYAY scheme. This scheme does not have incentive compatibility," he added.

Asked why is assured of NDA's victory, Panagariya said, "There are many reasons for this. One is Prime Minister Modi himself. Voters have confidence in him on the basis of his work. Secondly, the potential with which Prime Minister Modi can do election campaigning is way more than the other party leaders. In 2014, he covered around three lakh kilometers while doing rallies across India. Another example is that none of his Cabinet ministers got involved in any corruption case in last five years. If we see this in the last two-three decades, then this has happened for the first time."

He added, "Even he (Prime Minister Modi) took big steps like demonetisation. Whether you consider it good or not, it was a big step taken by him to fight against corruption. He has had an overall contribution in all aspect whether it is economic reports, infrastructure or social programs. In comparison with him, the Opposition has no candidate who can take a stand. Congress is the only national party, however, it has not rebuilt itself in last five years the way it should done. Still brand name politics is going on - Nehru and Gandhi. Also, they have not rebuilt any national policy agenda."

Panagariya believes Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, 2016, Goods and Services Tax (GST) and Direct Benefit Transfer are the "three biggest reforms in last 15 years."

"If I look at the UPA regime, then I can't find even a simple reform which can stand up against these three. Personally, I feel Swachh Bharat mission was the biggest progress," he said.

When asked about Rahul Gandhi's decision to scrap NITI Aayog after coming into power in upcoming Lok Sabha polls, Panagariya said, "I don't think it will be good for me to say anything on this since I was the Vice Chairman of NITI Aayog. I leave it for others to analyse.