GDP estimates imply minimal impact of demonetization, says report by SBI

The State Bank of India's Economic Research Department in its report on GDP estimates noted that the Q3 FY17 estimates are crucial in the sense that it should have given the impact of what happened in the economy during those two months of demonetization.

The report further added that despite the upward revision of Q1 FY16 and Q2 FY16, the GDP estimates for Q1 FY17 and Q2 FY17 have been revised upwards indicating improvement in economic activity in first half of current fiscal.

"The steep downward revision of Q3 FY16 has in turn led to higher growth in Q3 FY17, thus masking the impact of demonetization in the Q3 figures. Some of the numbers beneath the surface however signify the impact of demonetization," said the report which is authored by Chief Economic Adviser Economic Research Department SBI, Dr. Soumya Kanti Ghosh.

It further noted that growth in construction and finance sub-segments are at seven quarter low and at an all time low respectively in the current base year.

But what is intriguing is that growth rates of these segments show a significant recovery in Q4. With cement dispatches for January 2017 declining by a whopping 13 percent, it is not clear how construction activity is reviving in Q4FY17.