Monsoon in 2017 to remain below normal: Forecast

Looks like summer will be yet more unbearable this year, atleast the present weather condition makes us believe so.

Establishing this belief, Skymet Weather too has recently stated that monsoon, in 2017, is likely to remain below normal.

It is predicted to be at 95 percent (with an error margin of +/-five percent) of the long period average (LPA) of 887 mm for the four-month period from June to September.

The report further says that monsoon probabilities for JJAS are:

- Zero percent chance of excess (seasonal rainfall that is more than 110 percent of LPA),

- 10 percent chance of above normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 105 to 110 percent of LPA),

- 50 percent chance of normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 96 to 104 percent of LPA),

- 25 percent chance of below normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 90 to 95 percent of LPA),

- 15 percent chance of drought (seasonal rainfall that is less than 90 percent of LPA).

On a monthly scale, the precipitation foreshadow is as follows:

June - 102 percent of LPA (LPA for June = 164 mm)-

- 70 percent chance of normal,

- 20 percent chance of above normal,

- 10 percent chance of below normal.

July - 94 percent of LPA (LPA for July= 289 mm)-

- 60 percent chance of normal,

- 10 percent chance of above normal,

- 30 percent chance of below normal.

August - 93 percent of LPA (LPA for August = 261 mm)-

- 60 percent chance of normal,

- 10 percent chance of above normal,

- 30 percent chance of below normal.

September - 96 percent of LPA (LPA for September = 173 mm)-

- 50 percent chance of normal,

- 20 percent chance of above normal,

- 30 percent chance of below normal.