Pakistan: Imran Khan's November 30, 2014 challenge

Imran Khan has now been at 'it' since August 14, 2014. 'It', of course refers to his 'sit-in' in 'D' Chowk, Islamabad that brought the capital to a grinding halt for days and prevented the Chinese President from visiting. While his brother-in-arms, the mercurial Tahirul Qadri (TUQ), had cried off, Imran had stuck to the daunting task of dislodging an elected government, convinced of the genuineness of his demand- Nawaz Sharif's resignation on the grounds that the 2013 elections were rigged.

Imran has decided to have another go on November 30 when he would be organizing another 'dharna' in Islamabad.

Since August Imran Khan's position was that any enquiry into rigging charges would not be fair because as Nawaz Sharif would influence it. However, he has now back-tracked and asked the government to form a judicial commission by November 30 to investigate the alleged rigging in the last elections. The commission should also comprise ISI and Military Intelligence officials and furnish its report within four to six weeks of its formation. Until then, according to Imran, Sharif can stay in the office but should resign if the charges of electoral rigging are proved correct.

In the past, negotiations between the PTI and the government were inconclusive since Imran was insistent on Nawaz's resignation which the government was not even ready to consider. With Imran softening his stand it was expected that a settlement could be hammered out. But as of now, this too has been shelved.

Will the Nov 30 'dharna' be 'successful' or has Imran boxed himself into a corner?

The odds are definitely against him.

First, the earlier sit-in fizzled out due to waning interest of his followers. Ties with Qadri are uncertain. Though he is back in Pakistan from Canada, his health is suspect. Qadri's non-participation would be a big blow since it was his supporters rather than Imran's own workers who provided the 24/7 protestors during the long sit-ins.

Second, in the run-up to the Nov 30 'dharna', Imran has been holding a series of rallies to mobilise the people, especially in PMLN strongholds in Punjab like Sahiwal, Rahim Yar Khan, Jhelum and in the PPP stronghold of Larkana in Sindh. However, while Imran has been exhorting the participants in the rallies to come to Islamabad on Nov 30, his speeches have been more in the nature of election rallies rather than mobilizing efforts.

Third, Imran is politically isolated, with all other parties in Parliament standing with the 'system'. Even the JI, his coalition partner in KP, is not on board in Islamabad.

Fourth, the glimmer of hope that Imran had of widening the wedge between Nawaz and the Army too failed with Nawaz ceding security and foreign policy to the Army. The fate of Musharraf remains the one bone of contention between the two.

If the government does not accept his demands, can Imran disrupt government functioning through protests? So far the PTI has not demonstrated the organizational capacity or the cadre strength possessed by parties like the MQM, the JI or even the PPP

Thus, realistically, Imran doesn't have a chance unless either of the two things happen:

First, a Model Town-type of over-reaction by the government that could escalate into derailing democracy itself.

Second, how the Army, specifically COAS Raheel Sharif, behaves. He could have stepped in on Aug 30 when PTV was stormed. But the moment passed since Raheel did not want to become the fifth dictator in Pakistan. How about Nov 30, in case there is large-scale violence?

For its part, the government seems to be limping towards a response, elements of which are: Restrict the dharna to a one-day evening show; not allow protesters on Constitution Avenue and decide where the protest would be held; to deal with violence with an 'iron hand' with the presence of over 15,000 security personnel; deployment of the Army to protect key government installations and possible detention of Imran Khan and other party leaders.

The government's dilemma is that given Imran's determination to go ahead, preventing the 'dharna' will lead to violence just as allowing it could lead to violence anyway. A low-key response could further embolden Imran who is on record that if his demands are not accepted by November 30, the government would not be able to function after the show of people's power.

Clearly, a confrontation is brewing. According to Imran, he doesn't need permission from the government to exercise his democratic right to protest. So far, the PTI is insistent on holding the 'dharna' at the D-Chowk only.

Into this cauldron, Imran Khan's meetings with the US and the Chinese Ambassadors has set tongues wagging even more and generated speculations about impending political developments.

As of now, the bottom-line appears to be that the Nov 30 sit-in will not dislodge the Nawaz Sharif government but political stability and effective governance will continue to take a hit.

Given his tenacity, Imran is likely to settle for the long haul, a 5 day test match rather than a 20-20 or even one dayer.

But while Imran may have the stamina for the long haul, can the government allow the political drift to continue indefinitely ?

The views expressed in the above article are that of Mr. Salim Haq.