Fitch: Emerging-Market Corporates' Refinancing Risk Tops Investor Concerns

Fitch Ratings says emerging-market (EM) corporates face the greatest refinancing pressure according to respondents of the agency's latest European senior fixed-income investor survey. Forty six per cent see EM corporates experiencing the greatest refinancing challenge over the next 12 months, followed by EM sovereigns (20%) and high yield (17%).

Elsewhere, survey respondents believe the likelihood of eurozone deflation is receding, with only 22% seeing it as high risk, down sharply from 65% last quarter. There is widespread belief that the ECB will stick to its quantitative easing (QE) programme as planned (79%), with only a minority expecting the programme to be curtailed if inflation picks up (12%).

High-yield is the most favoured asset class among 30% of those polled. The runner-up is cash (16%, level with financial institutions), indicating a certain investor exasperation with current markets.

Seventy-two per cent of respondents say financial market risk overall remains manageable and far from the red zone; 28% believe it is growing very rapidly, with leverage rising and transactions getting more aggressive, reminiscent of pre-crisis levels.

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