India's transition to electric mobility system can save US$330 billion by 2030

Overcoming key barriers to vehicle electrification in India's passenger mobility sector presents an enormous challenge for India and also a tremendous economic opportunity. India can leapfrog the western mobility paradigm of private-vehicle ownership and create a shared, electric and connected mobility system, saving 876 million metric tons of oil equivalent, worth US$330 billion (INR 20 lakh crore) and 1 giga-tonne of carbon-dioxide emissions by 2030.

Using a collaborative approach, coordinated action and the strategies and solutions in this report, India can overcome key barriers to EV adoption and potentially become a global leader in electric mobility.

Estimates indicate that India's urban population will nearly double in the next decade, to approximately 600 million in 2030 and forecasts suggest that by then India's urban population will take almost 500 million trips per day. While this rapid growth presents major policy and business challenges for India's public and private sectors, respectively, it also resents an enormous economic opportunity. Optimizing e-mobility use for everyday life with greater thrust on use of public transport, e-vehicles, metro solutions and shared rides as means for mass transit could also prove game-changers in addressing the issue of air pollution in urban areas.

India's transition to a shared, electric, and connected mobility system can save US$330 billion (INR 20 lakh crore) by 2030 on avoided oil imports alone.

If India is successful in reaching its EV target, the market could be enormous. Even under a shared mobility paradigm, over 46,000,000 vehicles (two-, three-, and four wheelers) could be sold in 2030. This annual market size would present an opportunity for Indian companies to become leaders in EV technology on a global scale.

By 2027, 4-wheel EV sales may exceed 4-wheel ICE sales. After this intersection point, 4-wheel EV sales will grow rapidly, with nearly 16 million 4-wheel EV sales in 2030. While achieving 100% EV sales by 2030 is challenging, doing so would create a major business opportunity for automakers. Realizing this goal would have a significant impact on India's vehicle stock, with a nearly equal split between ICEs and EVs by 2030 in the 4-wheel segment.

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