Market surges in early trade on RBI's surprise rate cut

Key benchmark indices surged in early trade after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced a surprise cut in repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) by 25 basis points to 7.75%. Announcement of a rate cut trickled in before the trading hours today, 15 January 2015. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex was currently up 471.62 points or 1.72% at 27,818.44. The market breadth indicating the overall health of the market was strong. Rate sensitive banking and realty stocks jumped.

Bajaj Auto and TCS rose ahead of their Q3 results today, 15 January 2015.

Foreign portfolio investors sold shares worth a net Rs 69.74 crore on Wednesday, 14 January 2015, as per provisional data.

In overseas markets, most Asian stocks rose today, 15 January 2015, as a rebound by Japanese energy companies and exporters outweighed disappointing US retail sales. US stocks fell yesterday, 14 Janaury 2015, as a deepening commodities rout and an unexpected drop in American retail sales fueled concern over growth.

At 9:31 IST, the S&P BSE Sensex was up 471.62 points or 1.72% at 27,818.44. The index jumped 600.77 points at the day's high of 27,947.59 in early trade. The index rose 356.88 points at the day's low of 27,703.70 in early trade.

The CNX Nifty was up 133.30 points or 1.61% at 8,410.85. The index hit a high of 8,453.60 in intraday trade. The index hit a low of 8,380.55 in intraday trade.

The BSE Mid-Cap index was up 108.36 points or 1.03% at 10,580.27. The BSE Small-Cap index was up 106.11 points or 0.95% at 11,307.19. Both these indices underperformed the Sensex.

The market breadth indicating the overall health of the market was strong. On BSE, 1,106 shares advanced and 271 shares declined. A total of 29 shares were unchanged.

Bajaj Auto rose 0.73% ahead of its Q3 results today, 15 January 2015.

TCS gained 1.02% ahead of its Q3 results today, 15 January 2015.

The RBI in an unexpected move today, 15 January 2015, has reduced the policy repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) by 25 basis points from 8% to 7.75% with immediate effect. The RBI has kept the cash reserve ratio (CRR) of scheduled banks unchanged at 4% of net demand and time liabilities (NDTL).

Dr Raghuram G Rajan, Governor of the RBI in a statement said that, since July 2014, inflationary pressures (measured by changes in the consumer price index) have been easing. The path of inflation, while below the expected trajectory, has been consistent with the assessment of the balance of risks in the Reserve Bank's bi-monthly monetary policy statements. To some extent, lower than expected inflation has been enabled by the sharper than expected decline in prices of vegetables and fruits since September, ebbing price pressures in respect of cereals and the large fall in international commodity prices, particularly crude oil. Crude prices, barring geo-political shocks, are expected to remain low over the year. Weak demand conditions have also moderated inflation excluding food and fuel, especially in the reading for December. Finally, the government has reiterated its commitment to adhering to its fiscal deficit target.

It may be recalled that the fifth bi-monthly monetary policy statement of December had stated that if the current inflation momentum and changes in inflation expectations continue, and fiscal developments are encouraging, a change in the monetary policy stance is likely early next year, including outside the policy review cycle. In its public interactions, the RBI had committed to initiate the process of monetary easing as soon as data indicated that medium term inflationary targets would be met.

Key to further easing are data that confirm continuing disinflationary pressures. Also critical would be sustained high quality fiscal consolidation as well as steps to overcome supply constraints and assure availability of key inputs such as power, land, minerals and infrastructure. The latter would be needed to ensure that potential output rises above the projected pick-up in growth in coming quarters so as to contain inflation.

Most Asian stocks rose today, 15 January 2015, as a rebound by Japanese energy companies and exporters outweighed disappointing US retail sales. Key benchmark indices in China, Indonesia, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Japan were up 0.06% to 1.35%. Key benchmark indices in Taiwan and South Korea fell by 0.01% to 0.18%.

US stocks fell yesterday, 14 Janaury 2015, as a deepening commodities rout and an unexpected drop in American retail sales fueled concern over growth..

US retail sales dropped 0.9% in December, the biggest slide since January 2014, following a 0.4% gain in November that was smaller than previously estimated, according to the Commerce Department.

Meanwhile in Europe, uncertainties over the status of Greece including its possible exit from the eurozone are likely to persist until the early election in the country later this month. Greece is set to hold snap elections on 25 January 2015 after it failed to elect a new president in a third round of voting late last year. The Greek leftist opposition party Syriza leads opinion polls ahead of national elections on 25 January 2015. Syriza has demanded debt relief from the eurozone and promised to roll back the austerity and reform measures that the country has undertaken in exchange for the international bailout that the government negotiated in 2012.

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