Sensex slides as GDP growth slows in Q2 September 2014

Data showing a slowdown in the nation's economic growth in Q2 September 2014 and weakness in global stocks pulled key benchmark indices lower on the first trading day of the week. The market breadth indicating the overall health of the market was negative. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, was provisionally off 134.90 points or 0.47% at 28,559.09. World stocks fell as a Chinese manufacturing gauge dropped in November 2014 and American holiday spending slowed.

Global crude oil prices tumbled. Fall in crude oil prices augur well for India as the country imports 80% of its crude oil requirement. However, the weakness in rupee against the dollar will restrict the benefit of falling global crude oil prices to that extent. A weak rupee raises the cost of imports.

Shares of FMCG major Hindustan Unilever scaled record high. Shares of oil production and exploration firms dropped as crude oil prices declined. Maruti Suzuki India edged higher in volatile trade after reporting strong sales growth for the month just gone by. Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) declined on reporting drop in auto and total tractor sales in November 2014.

Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) bought shares worth a net Rs 935.86 crore during the previous trading session on Friday, 28 November 2014, as per provisional data.

On the macro front, the latest data showed India's economic growth eased in Q2 September 2014, mainly due to moderation in the growth of the agricultural and industrial sectors. Meanwhile, the result of a survey today, 1 December 2014, showed that manufacturing operating conditions in India improved for the thirteenth month in a row in November 2014, supported by stronger growth of output and new work intakes.

A sudden slide took key benchmark indices into the red from green in mid-afternoon trade. Before that, key indices had moved within a narrow range. Earlier, key benchmark indices had trimmed gains amid volatility in early trade. The 50-unit CNX Nifty had trimmed gains after hitting record high in early trade.

In overseas markets, Asian and European stocks edged lower as a Chinese manufacturing gauge dropped and American holiday spending slowed. Trading in US equity index futures indicated a decline in US stocks at the opening bell later in the global day today, 1 December 2014, as a surge in Thanksgiving Day holiday sales failed to carry through the Black Friday weekend.

In the foreign exchange market, the rupee edged lower against the dollar on broad strength in the greenback.

Brent crude oil futures hit five-year low, extending a steep sell-off after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) decided not to cut production last week. Indian government's decision in October 2014 to decontrol diesel prices and a sharp decline in global crude oil prices over the past few months will help reduce the government's fuel subsidy burden and help contain its fiscal deficit. The steep slide in global crude oil prices will also help India in containing its current account deficit and fuel price inflation. India imports 80% of its crude oil requirement. However, a weakness in rupee against the dollar will restrict the benefit of falling global crude oil prices to that extent. A weak rupee raises the cost of imports.

As per provisional closing, the Sensex was down 134.90 points or 0.47% at 28,559.09. The index lost 155.55 points at the day's low of 28,538.44 in late trade. The index jumped 115.65 points at the day's high of 28,809.64 in early trade.

The Nifty was down 32.35 points or 0.38% at 8,555.90. The index hit a low of 8,545.15 in intraday trade. The index hit a high of 8,623 in intraday trade, a record high for the index.

The market breadth indicating the overall health of the market was negative. On BSE, 1,663 shares declined and 1,228 shares gained. A total of 90 shares were unchanged.

The BSE Mid-Cap index was off 8.41 points or 0.08% at 10,262.20, outperforming the Sensex. The BSE Small-Cap index was off 79.33 points or 0.7% at 11,191.46. The fall the index was higher than Sensex's decline in percentage terms.

The total turnover on BSE amounted to Rs 3138 crore, lower than Rs 3834.96 crore on Friday, 28 November 2014.

FMCG major Hindustan Unilever gained 2.6% to Rs 807.05 after scaling a record high of Rs 814.60 in intraday trade.

Shares of oil production and exploration firms dropped as crude oil prices declined. Lower crude oil prices will result in lower realizations from crude sales for oil producers. ONGC (down 3.89%), Oil India (down 3.52%), and Cairn India (down 1.3%) dropped.

Shares of Reliance Industries (RIL) fell 2.81%. RIL on Friday, 28 November 2014, said that there are obvious differences between the Comptroller & Auditor General (CAG) and RIL on certain basic issues concerning the Production Sharing Contract (PSC). Once the company receives a formal communication of audit exceptions by the government, it will respond to the government in accordance with the provisions of the accounting procedure under the PSC and also exercise such other rights as are available to the company in law. RIL issued the clarification after CAG report was tabled in the parliament on that day.

Maruti Suzuki India gained 1.47% to Rs 3,385. The stock trimmed gains after scaling a record high of Rs 3,432 in intraday trade. The company's total sales rose 19.5% to 1.10 lakh units in November 2014 over November 2013. Maruti Suzuki India's domestic sales rose 17% to 1 lakh units in November 2014 over November 2013. Exports rose 52.7% to 10,123 units in November 2014 over November 2013. The monthly sales data was announced during trading hours today, 1 December 2014.

Meanwhile, Maruti Suzuki India during market hours today, 1 December 2014, said that the company will proactively undertake a Service Campaign to inspect a suspected fault and replace the relevant part of clutch operation system of a batch of 3,796 Ciaz (manual transmission) cars. These cars are among those manufactured till 7 November 2014, Maruti Suzuki India said. The company has decided to undertake a Service Campaign for these cars, in the interest of customers. Maruti Suzuki dealers have started to communicate with owners of the impacted vehicles. Service Campaigns are undertaken globally by automobile companies to rectify faults that may potentially cause inconvenience to customers. The inspection and replacement will be done free of cost to the customer, Maruti Suzuki India said.

Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) declined 2.39%. M&M during market hours today, 1 December 2014, said its total tractor sales declined 34% to 15,333 units in November 2014 over November 2013. Domestic tractor sales fell 36% to 14,207 units in November 2014 over November 2013. Exports surged 45% to 1,126 units in November 2014 over November 2013.

Commenting on the monthly performance, Rajesh Jejurikar, Chief Executive, Farm Equipment and Two Wheeler Division, M&M said, We have registered a sale of 14,207 units during November 2014. The tractor industry has been difficult due to delayed rains and sowing. A delayed paddy crop, low yield and low prices for sugarcane, cotton and paddy have led to a low demand and low cash in hand. There is also a based effect to some extent as Diwali this year was in October 2014 vis-vis in November 2014 last year.

Separately, M&M during market hours today, 1 December 2014, said its total auto sales declined 13% to 34,292 units in November 2014 over November 2013. Sales of Passenger Vehicles segment (which includes Uvs and the Verito) declined 18% to 13,765 units in November 2014 over November 2013. The company's domestic sales fell 11% to 32,100 units in November 2014 over November 2013. Sales of 4-wheeler commercial segment declined 3% to 12,748 units in November 2014 over November 2013. Three-wheeler segment's sales fell 15% to 5,005 units in November 2014 over November 2013. Exports fell 27% to 2,192 units in November 2014 over November 2013.

Speaking on the monthly performance, Pravin Shah, Chief Executive, Automotive Division & International Operations (AFS), M&M said, The auto industry continues to its sluggish demand on the back of factors such as low consumer sentiments and high interest rates. The reducing international crude prices and the subsequent lowering of fuel prices should help in revival of demand in the coming months. We also hope that the current excise duty rates will be extended beyond end of December to get much needed recovery for the auto industry. We continue to be optimistic on the back of a good response for our New Generation Scorpio and a comparatively better performance of our 4 wheeler commercial segment.

Chennai Petroleum Corporation fell 3.49%. Indian Oil Corporation shed 1.06%. With respect to media reports titled Indian Oil Corporation, Chennai Petroleum may merge, Chennai Petroleum Corporation during market hours today, 1 December 2014, clarified that as of now there is no merger proposal between both the companies.

In the foreign exchange market, the rupee edged lower against the dollar on broad strength in the greenback. The partially convertible rupee was hovering at 62.1, compared with its close of 62.035 during the previous trading session on Friday, 28 November 2014.

Brent crude oil futures hit five-year low, extending a steep sell-off after Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) decided not to cut production last week. Brent for January settlement was off $1.45 a barrel at $68.70 a barrel. The contract hit a low of $67.82 a barrel in intraday trade, the lowest since October 2009. Brent for January settlement had dropped $2.43 a barrel to settle at $70.15 on Friday, 28 November 2014, the lowest close since 25 May 2010.

Meanwhile, United Arab Emirates' Oil Minister Suhail Mohamed Faraj Al-Mazrouei reportedly said that OPEC has no target price it would seek to defend.

Manufacturing operating conditions in India improved for the thirteenth month in a row in November 2014, supported by stronger growth of output and new work intakes, a survey showed today, 1 December 2014. Rising from 51.6 in October 2014 to 53.3 in November 2014, the headline seasonally adjusted HSBC India Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) - a composite indicator designed to give an accurate overview of manufacturing operating conditions - reached a 21-month peak in November. The latest improvement in business conditions was solid overall and the thirteenth in consecutive months, the survey showed.

Pranjul Bhandari, Chief India Economist at HSBC said that a sharp rise in input prices paid by manufacturers in November 2014 was surprising, but future prints may be lower as falling commodity prices eventually lead to softer intermediate good prices. He also said that the pick-up in output prices charged by manufacturers in November 2014 could partly be signalling some revival in pricing power among businesses. Higher output and an uptick in final prices should convince the Reserve Bank of India to stay on hold at a monetary policy meeting tomorrow, 2 December 2014, Bhandari said.

India's economic growth eased in Q2 September 2014 mainly due to moderation in the growth of the agricultural and industrial sectors, data released by the Central Statistical Office after trading hours on Friday, 28 November 2014, showed. The GDP grew 5.3% in Q2 September 2014, compared with 5.7% expansion in Q1 June 2014. The services sector growth has shown improvement for the second straight quarter in Q2 September 2014. On the demand side, the net foreign demand weakened, while the domestic investment demand growth slowed sharply to remain flat from 7% in Q1 June 2014. However, the domestic private consumption and government consumption growth improved in Q2 September 2014.

GDP growth in the first half of current fiscal year stood at 5.5%, compared with 4.9% expansion during the corresponding period in the previous year. India's GDP grew 4.7% in 2013-14.

The government plans to introduce the nationwide Goods and Service Tax (GST) in April 2016, the Minister of State for Finance, Jayant Sinha, said in written reply to a question in Lok Sabha on Friday, 28 November 2014. The various aspects of GST design are being discussed in the Empowered Committee of State Finance Ministers so that there is broad consensus regarding modalities of its implementation, the government said. GST has been so designed that credit of taxes paid at every stage of value addition from the point of manufacture to the point of consumptions can be availed at the next stage. GST is essentially a tax on value addition and there is seamless transfer of input tax credit across the value chain. Due to the seamless transfer of input tax credit from one stage to another in the chain of value addition, there is an in-built mechanism in the design of GST that would incentivize tax compliance by traders.

According to the government, GST will simplify and harmonise the indirect tax regime in the country. It is expected to reduce cost of production and inflation in the economy, therby making the Indian trade and industry more competitive domestically as well as internationally. It is also expected that introduction of GST will foster a common or seamless Indian market and contribute significantly to the growth of the economy, according to the government.

The government is likely to introduce the constitutional amendment bill for GST during the ongoing winter session of parliament.

Sinha also said in written reply to another question in Lok Sabha on Friday, 28 November 2014, that a series of reforms have been initiated by the government and that many more reforms are on the anvil.

The Indian government intends to get the Insurance Laws Amendment Bill that seeks to enhance FDI limit in capital starved insurance sector passed during the winter session of parliament which began on 24 November 2014. The government is also likely to introduce the constitutional amendment bill for the goods & services tax in the winter session of parliament.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) undertakes monetary policy review tomorrow, 2 December 2014. The central bank aims to limit consumer-price gains to 8% by January 2015 and 6% by January 2016. Over the longer term, the RBI aims to limit consumer-price gains to 4%, within a 2% band. The annual rate of inflation based on the combined consumer price index (CPI) for urban and rural India eased to 5.52% in October 2014 from 6.46% in September 2014, data released by the government on 12 November 2014 showed.

European stocks declined today, 1 December 2014, as a Chinese manufacturing gauge fell more than forecast and American holiday spending slowed. Key benchmark indices in UK, France and Germany were off 0.36% to 0.92%.

A closely-watched gauge of manufacturing activity in the eurozone disappointed in November, data released today, 1 December 2014 showed. Markit's final November manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 50.1, its lowest reading since June 2013 and down from an earlier flash reading of 50.4 and from 50.6 in October. That is barely above the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction.

Asian stocks fell today, 1 December 2014, as a Chinese manufacturing gauge dropped and American holiday spending slowed. Key benchmark indices in Singapore, Taiwan, China, Hong Kong and South Korea were off 0.1% to 2.58%. Key benchmark indices in Indonesia and Japan were up 0.28% to 0.75%.

Global credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service today, 1 December 2014, cut the sovereign-debt rating on Japan to A1 from Aa3, but said the outlook is stable. The ratings cut comes amid increased uncertainty over whether the government can meet its goals for deficit reduction, concerns over medium-term growth prospects and Japan's debt load, Moody's said in the release. While monetary expansion has boosted domestic aggregate demand to some extent, the consumption tax increase on 1 April 2014 has exerted even more powerful downward pressure, the ratings firm said. However, even with the challenges currently facing the government, Japan retains very significant credit strengths, according to Moody's. The announcement came after the close trading hours in Japan.

Japan's economy may have contracted in the third quarter but probably not by as much as surprising preliminary data showed last month, a key survey of business spending suggests. Japanese firms boosted their capital spending by 3.1% in the July to September period from the previous three-month period, the Ministry of Finance's survey of financial statistics of corporations showed today, 1 December 2014.

In China, the HSBC China manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, a gauge of nationwide manufacturing activity, fell to a six-month low of 50 in November from 50.4 in October, HSBC Holdings PLC said today, 1 December 2014. A reading below 50 indicates a contraction in manufacturing activity from the previous month, whereas a reading above indicates expansion.

China's official manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index fell to 50.3 in November compared with 50.8 in October, the National Bureau of Statistics, said today, 1 December 2014.

Trading in US index futures indicated that the Dow could fall 71 points at the opening bell today, 1 December 2014. US stocks posted a mixed finish in a holiday-shortened session on Friday, 28 November 2014, as energy shares got slammed a day after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) did nothing to alleviate a global supply glut. The Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a gain of 0.49 point to end at 17,828.24, marking another record close.

Consumer spending in the United States fell to $50.9 billion over the four days through 30 November 2014, down from $57.4 billion in 2013, the National Retail Federation said in a statement today, 1 December 2014. It's the second year in a row that sales declined during the period, which had long been famous for long lines and frenzied crowds.

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