Sustained increase in new orders underpin output growth: Nikkei India Manufacturing PMI

PMI eases from 52.5 in April to a three-month low of 51.6 in May 2017

The Indian manufacturing sector stayed in expansion mode in May as a further upturn in new business supported output growth. That said, rates of increase eased in both cases. Spending patterns varied, with employment down but quantities of purchases up from April. Meanwhile, input costs rose at the slowest rate since last September, whereas charge inflation accelerated. With regards to future performance, goods producers were at their most optimistic in six months.

Remaining above the no-change mark of 50.0 in May, the headline Nikkei India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers IndexTM (PMITM) signalled a further improvement in operating conditions. That said, the PMI was down from 52.5 in April to a three-month low of 51.6.

May data pointed to softer expansions in both new orders and production. Incoming new work rose at the weakest pace since February, with slowdowns evident in the consumer and intermediate goods categories. Capital goods producers, meanwhile, recorded a contraction in order books. Output growth across the manufacturing sector as a whole was at a three-month low.

Businesses further increased their purchasing activity during May. Moreover the upturn in buying levels was more pronounced than in April. Subsequently, stocks of purchases rose, with the pace of accumulation the quickest in the current three-month sequence of growth.

On the other hand, holdings of finished goods decreased in May as companies sought to fulfil orders from stocks. The rate of depletion was sharp, and the most pronounced since August 2015. Quicker reductions in post-production inventories were seen in each of the three monitored market groups.

International demand for Indian-manufactured goods deteriorated in May, as signalled by a decline in new export orders. The contraction was only slight, but ended a three-month sequence of growth.

Amid reports of the non-replacement of voluntary leavers and shortages of suitable labour, manufacturing jobs in India decreased in May. The fall in staff numbers was centred on the intermediate goods category, with marginal growth noted elsewhere.

Concurrently, outstanding business volumes rose again, marking a one-year sequence of accumulation. Despite accelerating since April, the pace of expansion in backlogs was modest.

Cost burdens facing Indian goods producers continued to rise in May, with chemicals, metals, paper and plastics all reported to be up in price. The rate of inflation softened to the slowest in eight months, however, and was below the long-run series average. In contrast, factory gate charges increased at a slightly quicker pace than in April.

Business confidence improved in May, with firms expecting new product launches, machinery acquisitions and marketing campaigns to support output growth in the year ahead. Moreover, the degree of optimism climbed to a six-month high.

Commenting on the Indian Manufacturing PMI survey data, Pollyanna De Lima, Economist at IHS Markit and author of the report, said: "The upturn in the Indian manufacturing sector took a step back in May, with softer demand causing slower expansions in output and the amount of new work received by firms. Moreover, there was a renewed decline in new export orders.

"Echoing a more positive tone, the PMI dataset highlighted a stronger increase in businesses input purchasing, while optimism reached a six-month peak. Additionally, cost inflationary pressures cooled.

"With inflation under control and manufacturing growth below par, we may see the RBI changing neutral monetary policy stance to accommodative in coming months in order to support the economy."

Powered by Capital Market - Live News