Global cues, macro-data to steer Indian rupee

Global cues, along with the release of key macro-economic data, are expected to steer the Indian rupee in the upcoming week.

"In the near term, rupee will continue taking cues from shifts in global risk appetite," Bansi Madhavani, analyst, India Ratings and Research, told IANS.

Future choppy sessions in the currency markets are expected on the final modalities of Britain's decision to exit from the EU (Brexit).

Even the top central banks such as ECB (European Central Bank) and BoE (Bank of England) will hold meets over the issue next week.

Apart from global cues, domestic key macro-economic data points slated to be released next week will influence investors' sentiments.

The factory output -- Index of Industrial Production (IIP) -- for May and inflation figures for June, will also give future guidance about RBI's (Reserve Bank of India) next move on lending rates.

"Additionally, domestic inflation and factory production data to be released will also be on investors' focus," Madhavani said.

Besides, Madhavani explained that a strong US jobs data released on last Friday might not lead to major adverse impact in the near term.

"Higher job additions is unlikely to give US Fed confidence to move ahead with its rate normalisation immediately. Concerns over growth as well as pickup in inflation will continue to dominate concerns," Madhavani added.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the total non-farm payroll employment increased by 287,000 in June, whereas the unemployment rate rose to 4.9 per cent.

The healthy data assumes significance as it can quicken the start of the next rate-hike cycle. A hike in the US interest rates can potentially lead FPIs (Foreign Portfolio Investors) away from emerging markets such as India.

Anindya Banerjee, Associate Vice President for Currency Derivatives with Kotak Securities, told IANS: "We could continue to expect RBI to buy US dollar as speculative hot money is causing rupee to gain against its peers, like yuan."

The Indian rupee is predicted to range between 66.70-67.60 in the very near term.

"The rupee is benefiting from a very positive narrative domestically -- monsoon, GST (Goods and Services Tax) and reforms," Banerjee elaborated.

"With global central banks in a more accommodating mood post Brexit, the interplay between external and internal factors are working in favour of rupee."

However, on a weekly basis, the currency weakened by five paise to 67.37 against a US dollar from its previous close of 67.32.

On a positive note, the week witnessed an influx of foreign funds. The provisional figures from the stock exchanges showed that foreign institutional investors bought stocks worth Rs 479.02 crore.

The figures from the National Securities Depository (NSDL) showed that foreign portfolio investors were net buyers of equities worth Rs 525.32 crore, or $78.17 million from July 4-8.

(Rohit Vaid can be contacted at rohit.v@ians.in)

--IANS

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