An embattled Ms Banerjee

The impact of Saradha on West Bengal's politics

The Central Bureau of Investigation's inquiry into the Saradha Ponzi scheme that deprived millions of small depositors in eastern India of thousands of crores seems to be heading for a dramatic climax. With the arrest of a former director general of police of West Bengal, Rajat Majumdar, who after his retirement was at one time a consultant to both the West Bengal government and the Saradha group - and close to the top leadership of the ruling Trinamool Congress - there is intense speculation as to whom the investigating agency will nab next. Two senior politicians in the Trinamool Congress appear to be vulnerable, with former aides of one of them having been questioned. These leaders owe their position to Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, who now seems to be somewhat embattled.

If the splash that the financial scandal has created finally reaches the doorstep of Ms Banerjee, the big question is what impact it will have on the course of the state's politics. The chief minister's stature among ordinary residents of the state currently remains largely undiminished. They are willing to make a distinction between her party and herself, and her personal image is seen as clean despite the many ways in which both the leadership, and the rank and file of the Trinamool Congress have conducted themselves. This enabled her to lead her party last year to a resounding victory in the panchayat elections months after the Saradha edifice collapsed. But the question is, how much longer? Perhaps seeing the writing on the wall and the likely ensnaring of some top party colleagues, she has recently said even if one "rotten mango" is discovered, then it will be discarded.

Trinamool Congress' rule appears to have done little to make a dent on either the struggling economy of West Bengal with high levels of unemployment, or the state's social fabric, which is ridden with violence. The grass-roots operatives of the party appear to be running extortion and rent-seeking rackets that have, if anything, become worse after the exit of the Left Front. This, plus the absence of any progress in attracting new industry, should put a question mark over the prospects of the ruling party in the next Assembly elections due in under three years. The only thing that seems to be working in favour of Ms Banerjee's rule is that her opposition continues to be in disarray. The Left Front remains bewildered, without any sign of a new, confident leadership emerging. As for the truncated Congress, which appears to have been banished to parts of north Bengal, the less said the better. The Bharatiya Janata Party is an ascendant force, true, actively playing the communal card by focusing on anxiety over illegal migration from Bangladesh - about whose actual extent nobody has any clear idea. But despite doing much better it cannot be remotely near to posing a serious threat to the Trinamool Congress in 2016. West Bengal, thus, seems condemned to remain in its present unhappy state without any sign of a change for the better. What would be worse is if corruption allegations so severely erode the credibility of the Trinamool Congress that, like the last government in New Delhi, it ends up struggling to govern.