As India enters a new year, it is worth considering all that will be at stake for the country in 2019. There is little doubt that this will be one of the most consequential years in its history. The outcome of the next general election will not just shape India for the next five years but for the decades beyond it. Time is running out for India to reap a demographic dividend: If the young people now growing up in India’s towns and villages do not pick up skills, or some sort of vocation, it is hard to see how India will ever become a decent, middle-class society. If the economic backbone of the country does not change to further enable entrepreneurship, protect investments and promote large-scale enterprise, it will miss its last chance at mass employment. And, most of all, if it does not protect its remaining institutions and re-invigorate those that have lost credibility recently, its decades-long status as a beacon of liberal hopes will be lost.
The year just concluded has not been a good one from the point of view of the institutions that are the pillars of Indian democracy. It began with an unprecedented press conference by four of the senior-most judges of India’s Supreme Court, who aired in public their dissent against certain actions by the then Chief Justice of India. Over the course of the year, other institutions found themselves tarnished. The Central Bureau of Investigation had its top leadership suspended after infighting spilled out into the open. Even the Reserve Bank of India had to deal with an attempt to force its hand with regard to the resolution of non-performing assets and the use of its reserves. As at the macro level, so at the micro: The murder by a mob of a policeman in Uttar Pradesh revealed the degree to which the authority of the institutions of the state has been eroded even in the heartland of the country. The simple ineffectiveness and lack of accountability of the grassroots organs of the Indian states — from the police to the lower judiciary — have contributed to this loss of authority. Police and judicial reforms have been off the table for too long.
No country can aspire to greatness without institutions that are strong, effective and continuous. No country can stay a liberal democracy without institutions that are independent, transparent, and accountable. For India, therefore, the challenges of 2019 will be severe. One institution that will have to step up is the Election Commission of India, which will be called upon to supervise what promises to be one of the most acrimonious and hard-fought elections in decades. It will do so at a time in which electoral processes worldwide have seen their integrity questioned. This is an extraordinarily hard task even for a body that has consistently over the past decades done the hard work needed to conduct free, fair and transparent elections in a country as complex as India. The politicians, and indeed the voters, of India will also have to make hard choices. The institutions of liberal democracy can often appear to be obstructive or, paradoxically, undemocratic. But these are the byproducts of a system that has evolved to give every citizen a voice and to prevent the dissolution of the social contract. In 2019, India has to ensure that its institutions are strong and independent.