Crunch time

Asia needs to print cash to mop up oil slick

Asia might need to print new cash to mop up the oil spill. Deflation risks in the region are rising with falling crude prices. Stuffing freshly minted money into the bank accounts of indebted households could be more effective than coaxing banks to finance new investment.

Crude oil prices are down 17 per cent from their May high. The slumping Chinese stock market and worries about the euro zone's future could extend the rout. Lower energy prices won't be enough to get consumers spending again for two reasons: One, they already have too much debt, especially in South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore. Two, a lot of production capacity is lying unused across Asia because of anaemic global trade, which could mean a second straight year of dull wage growth.

That would be terrible for domestic consumption. Central banks could print cash and hand it over to banks to lend. But the capacity glut makes profitable investment opportunities hard to find.

Just like in the West, quantitative easing in Asia is more likely to stoke asset bubbles than spur job creation and wage growth.

Fiscal easing would be more beneficial, especially if governments can lower taxes and fees for households reeling under a debt overhang.

But who will pay? Rapidly ageing populations make Asian governments wary of piling up debt on future generations. That problem would go away

if the tax cuts were to be indirectly financed by monetary authorities: Governments would sell bonds; central banks would buy them from the market and keep them.

Over time, the tax cuts will have their intended effect: Higher consumer spending will absorb excess capacities. Deflation fears will recede.

There are few other good options. Interest rates are already quite low in the region; Asian currencies are weakening; and yet there is little inflation - except in India and Indonesia.

Slumping oil prices would only make it harder for consumer prices to recover.

China could get "pushed into a vicious spiral of debt deflation," Wu Yongding, a former Chinese central bank adviser, warned recently. Given the risks, mopping up the oil spill with newly printed cash is well worth a try.