Devastated but able to cope

Poland: In another tragedy near infamous Katyn, Poland has again lost some of its elite. Stalin’s massacre in 1940 wounded a nation which was doomed to suffer for decades. Perhaps the greatest tribute that can be paid to Saturday's air crash victims is that they leave a strong, independent country and a sound economy, able to withstand this shocking accident.

President Lech Kaczynski and Slawomir Skrzypek, the governor of the central bank, were among the many political, military, intellectual and religious leaders killed. Bronislaw Komorowski, the parliamentary speaker, has taken over as interim president and will call an election by mid-year. Komorowski was expected to be a presidential candidate in the elections previously scheduled for October. The polls were predicting that he would defeat Kaczynski.

At the central bank, Piotr Wiesiolek, Skrzypek’s deputy, has taken temporary charge. Komorowski says a new permanent governor will be appointed quickly.

The legacy of those who died on Saturday is a resilient Poland. The zloty’s fall of close to one-third when the global crisis was at its worst a little over a year ago helped cushion the Polish economy. Growth of 1.7 per cent in 2009 was remarkable given that European Union countries contracted by an average of 4.1 per cent and no other EU economy grew at all. Investors have taken note. The central bank acted last week to try to stem the zloty’s steady appreciation over recent months.

Luck has played a part in Poland’s success. Car scrappage schemes in Germany and elsewhere favoured Polish manufacturers. But the conservatism of Kaczynski and other Polish leaders also deserves credit. Poland avoided eastern Europe’s worst lending binges. Kaczynski frustrated some of his opponents by being in no rush to head towards the euro party.

Economic prospects remain good. The fiscal deficit may approach 7 per cent of GDP this year and needs to be reduced. But growth is expected to be about 3 per cent this year and the government aims to raise about $10 billion from sales of state assets, including in the largest insurance company, PZU.

Poland is traumatised by the accident and by the cruel irony that those killed were en route for Katyn. Russian grief over the accident has been welcomed in Poland. A little balm has been poured on the appalling wound of 70 years ago. That Poland’s fate is so much better now reflects in part the life work of those who died on Saturday.