Dillip Kumar Satapathy: The many dreams of Naveen Patnaik

If the BJD bags around 20 Lok Sabha seats in the upcoming general elections then Patnaik can either play the role of a kingmaker or even be anointed as the king, feel party leaders

The tone was loud and clear- Odisha is conquered and secured and the next target is to play a pivotal role in government formation at the Centre after the 2014 general elections. The exhortation of Biju Janata Dal (BJD) supremo and Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik on the 17th Foundation Day celebration of his party on Thursday was clear - to get more members of Parliament (MPs) elected from his party to the Lok Sabha in the forthcoming general elections.

Of the 21 Lok Sabha seats in the state, the BJD had bagged 14 in the 2009 polls and the target is a clean sweep in 2014.

The Congress is "corrupt" and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is "communal", hence, there is a need to provide a secular, transparent and stable government at the Centre, Patnaik told partymen, hinting at the emergence of an alternative political bloc.

"We can effectively fight for the interests of Odisha if more BJD candidates are elected to the Lok Sabha," he said, clearly laying out the party's political strategy for the next few months.

The post of Prime Minister is not out of reach for Patnaik as he has nothing more to prove in the state after leading the party to successive wins in panchayat, urban local bodies, Assembly and Parliament elections in the past 15 years, with the party improving its performance over the previous contest every time.

If the BJD bags around 20 Lok Sabha seats, which is a probability given the crumbling state of the main opposition parties the Congress and the BJP in the state and result of the recently conducted local body elections, then Patnaik can either play the role of a kingmaker or may be anointed as the king, feel party leaders.

"Naveen's father Biju Patnaik had often played the role of kingmaker at the national-level. The son can now go a step further and become the king," remarked a political analyst.

The thinking in the party circles is that even if the BJP emerges as the single largest party in the Lok Sabha polls riding on the Modi wave, it would still fall far short of the required seats to form the government. With the "communal" tag stuck to the party and its leaders, the saffron outfit may not get enough allies to clear the hurdle. Similarly, the "discredited" Congress will be in no position to come back to power.

Against this backdrop, regional parties - which are on the ascendence in different states - may come together to form an alternate bloc and select a consensus candidate to lead the front. This has already begun with the holding of a rally by some non-Congress and non-BJP party leaders at Delhi in October this year.

But here, Naveen has kept his cards close to his chest. Though he sent MP Baijayant Panda to the Delhi rally, he himself did not join it.

Similarly, when Communist Party of India leader A B Bardhan called on him last week to discuss on the formation of a Third Front, Patnaik made no commitments beyond giving support for such an effort. "Patnaik has assured further discussions in this regard [Third Front] towards end of January or February as there is still time for the elections," Bardhan told reporters emerging from the meeting.

"In case the Front gets a chance to form a government and looks for a consensus candidate, Naveen is likely to pip other regional satraps like Nitish Kumar and Jayalalithaa for the post [of Prime Minister] as he is non-controversial, affable, suave, accommodative and politically astute - the qualities required for a person to put together a motley of regional and smaller parties of different hues to give some stability to the government," said a party leader.

All these assumptions, however, stem from the possibility of the BJD doing well at the husting. Both the BJP and the Congress were badly bruised in the recently held urban local body elections where the BJD grabbed more than 80 per cent seats. The massive gains by the BJD in western and south western parts of the state, should be a warning signal for the Congress and the BJP because these areas accounted for a three-fourth of their seats in the last Assembly elections. While the faction-ridden Congress is unable to recover from weak state leadership, the BJP is finding it hard to hold on to its limited pockets of influence due to organisational deficiencies.

As a result, though there is palpable anti-incumbency and charges of multi-crore scams relating to mining (the Shah Commission has indicted the government on the issue) and chit fund against the government, the Opposition has not able to capitalise on them.

This has only made the BJD leaders more confident about the party returning to power with greater strength in the next Assembly elections which coincide with the Lok Sabha polls and visualise a greater role for Patnaik at the national level.