From tantrums to tranquility

Much needed sobriety in Sino-Indian relations

Prime Ministers Manmohan Singh and Wen Jiao Bao have restored the much-needed sobriety to the India-China relationship through the tone of their meeting on the sidelines of the Fourth East Asia Summit in Thailand over the weekend. In the past few months, a war of words through the media has disrupted peace and tranquility between the neighbours. While the Indian media is free and does not necessarily reflect government opinion, no one could believe the same of China’s officially controlled media. The media hysteria was aggravated by unhelpful statements from China regarding the prime minister’s visit to Arunachal Pradesh. Coming on top of China’s official objections to Indian project proposals at the Asian Development Bank and followed by objections to the Dalai Lama’s visit to Arunachal, these events gave the impression that both governments were hurtling towards a confrontation. Against this background, the bilateral meeting between the two prime ministers took place at the right time and has helped calm nerves. Neither India nor China would like to have their attention diverted from the urgent task of economic development at home. Both countries are trying to deal with a difficult global economic situation. Hence, neither should want a deterioration in the bilateral relationship.

It is interesting to note, however, that while the Singh-Wen meeting was front page news in India, it hardly secured any attention in the Chinese media. Rather, the focus of the Chinese media was on the East Asia Summit and the Asean+3 meetings. Clearly, for all their official protestations to India, China is more focused on reviving economic growth in East and South-east Asia. For India too, any deterioration in relations with China is a costly diversion of governmental attention at a time when the economy should occupy everyone’s mind space. China should not worry too much about the Dalai Lama’s visit to Arunachal Pradesh, nor should the visit itself be seen as an act of bravado or defiance. The sooner China is able to conduct a normal dialogue with the Dalai Lama the better it is for all concerned. Prime Minister Singh was right to emphasise the fact that India, as much of the world, views him as a religious and spiritual leader and not a political leader.

Relationship with China is the most complex foreign policy challenge for India and much of China’s neighbours. China can afford to do more than it has done so far to reassure its neighbours, especially developing countries, that its rise would not threaten them. With respect to India, China can do more than it has done so far to re-assure New Delhi. To begin with, it should show more interest in border talks, which seem to have lost their way after a promising resumption in 2005, reduce its trade deficit with India and be more transparent on its exchange rate and trade promotion policies. Till China’s economic policies are more transparent, neither can it aspire for “market economy” status nor should we enter into a free trade agreement with it.