India's Ukraine destiny: A foreign policy test

New Delhi must craft a consistent position on the war

The sparkling accolades India earned after Prime Minister Narendra Modi candidly expressed disapproval of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine last month dimmed somewhat after India abstained from a United Nations Security Council resolution condemning Russia’s illegal referendums in four regions of Ukraine and calling for an unconditional withdrawal of troops from that country. India joined China, Brazil, and Gabon in choosing this path. It is unclear why India opted against voting for this unexceptionable resolution, which would have underlined its stated preference for dialogue instead of war. India has also consistently maintained that the global order is based on the UN charter, international law, and respect for territorial sovereignty. Unlike the earlier dozen-odd abstentions at the UN on the Russia-Ukraine question that were recognised as India’s need to seek strategic balance — principally the country’s dependence on Russian defence supplies — this one has also brought into question India’s global commitment to nuclear disarmament and strengthening the non-proliferation order, a position it has consistently reiterated even after the country conducted nuclear tests.

This position could well be tested in the months ahead as Mr Putin ups the ante on his Ukraine invasion project. The huge expansion of the military draft announced last month is one element of this larger plan. The “referendums” Russia organised on Ukrainian territory late last month and in which it unilaterally claimed victory can be seen as another element. Mr Putin swiftly followed up the referendums by signing decrees to declare the four eastern Ukrainian territories — Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia—part of Russia. His reasons for taking this unequivocal step forward are transparent. First, the Ukrainian military has rolled back the Russian frontline some distance in the region and has reoccupied a fair chunk of its territory that the Putin decree claims for Russia. This, in turn, presents the Russian president with what he sees as a legitimate reason to escalate military aggression, since in his framing Ukraine is not defending its own land but invading Russian territory. More sinister is Mr Putin’s overt threat to deploy nuclear weapons, an intention that was obliquely underscored at the glittering decree-signing ceremony at which he referred to the atomic bombs that the US dropped on Japan in 1945, bringing World War II to an end.

The threat of nuclear escalation will alter the dynamics of the war in unpredictable ways. Mr Putin has not spelt out his nuclear plans in public but the calculation is that he is unlikely to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in the annexed areas, where Ukraine is making gains since he would end up annihilating many of the people he has recently welcomed as Russian citizens. A longer-range weapon aimed at unoccupied Ukraine — say, its capital Kiev —may not bring territorial gains but is likely to send a political message to the US and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Given that the US has indicated its disapproval of India’s position on Ukraine by excluding it from the critical Minerals Security Partnership and signing an F16 sustainment programme with Pakistan, it will be critical for New Delhi to craft a nuanced and consistent position on the Russia-Ukraine crisis that would establish greater credibility with its allies.