Letters: Driver of growth

With reference to “Why Trump can’t make it 1981 again” by Ruchir Sharma (January 16), in his excellent book, “The Rise and Fall of Nations”, Sharma has provided 10 rules for assessing the growth potential of a nation. Now, he seems to be focusing on just one rule — “population growth”. Referring to the population and productivity formula, Sharma writes in the book: “But productivity is hard to measure, and the results are subject to constant revision and debate. On the other hand, the number of hours people work reflects growth in the workforce, which is driven by population growth, which is relatively easy to count.” It is difficult to comprehend that easy measurability can make population as the sole determinant of economic growth.

One of the major drivers of productivity is advancement in science and technology. A research paper by the London School of Economics has said shale oil is an important contributor to future US economic growth and that the shale oil/gas boom may have helped the US economy recover faster than it would otherwise have done after the 2008 crisis. No doubt, falling oil prices have arrested this trend, but this could be a temporary phase.

It is believed the world is on the cusp of a “fourth industrial revolution” caused by emerging technology breakthroughs covering wide-ranging fields such as artificial intelligence, robotics, 3-D technology, nanotechnology and biotechnology. These developments may cause a paradigm shift in our thinking and do away with the need to consider population growth as the singular driver of economic growth.

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