There is a very clear sense in which the Opposition is playing yesterday’s politics. They continue to be well behind the curve, and Mr Modi seems to be well ahead of it. For example, the buzz at the moment is about how well the various elements of the Opposition could combine into a notional “grand alliance”. This may seem appealing. After all, it has historical sanction, and even recent success. It took the combined might of non-Congress parties to defeat Indira Gandhi in 1977; and the BJP’s brutal defeat in the Bihar state Assembly elections was clearly a consequence of the consolidation of votes provided by the effective alliance between the two local rivals, Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad. And so, now, national and local alliances are being spoken of. Even the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party in Uttar Pradesh, in spite of the decades of deeply personal animosity that lie between them, have been making conciliatory noises of late.
Yet it should be clear that the “grand alliances”, unless the arithmetic becomes overwhelming as in Bihar, simply play into Mr Modi’s hands. He is then able to portray his opponents as grasping for power above all else — above ideology and above a commitment to governance. Even those relatively untainted by corruption can be attacked for joining hands with those who are. Those who are outsiders to the government can be mocked for allying with those who are very definitely insiders. Self-made leaders can be criticised for sitting down with dynasts. In other words, the arithmetical gains can be more than cancelled out by the loss to the narrative. It will allow Mr Modi to continue to paint all opposition to him as being run for caste-based or family-based reasons.
Clearly, the BJP’s advance looks inexorable at the moment partly because no Opposition party seems to be able to construct a credible counter-narrative. The initial “suit-boot” assault has lost steam after demonetisation, in which Mr Modi successfully portrayed himself as the saviour of the poor. While his turn to welfarist policies has played into that pivot, Mr Modi has captured the high ground on not just populism but also corruption, nationalism and purposeful government. Instead of trying methods that are unlikely to work, the Opposition should instead focus on determining what will work. It appears that nothing changes about their approach, in spite of losing election after election. They need to root their appeal in something as novel as Mr Modi promises: An appeal to new India that seeks out narratives, candidates and leaders that have limited links to the discredited past. In short, Opposition has to raise its overall game.
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