Pakistan's isolation

PM's focus on its terror network is paying off

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in the Kyrgyz capital of Bishkek reflected the gains of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s sustained campaign against Pakistani sponsorship of terrorism. For the first time, the declaration from the SCO’s Heads of States Council contained an explicit reference condemning terrorism “in all its forms and manifestations” and urged member states to work towards a consensus on adopting a Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism. Given that Pakistan is a member of this grouping, which is headed by its principal sponsor, China, the declaration marks a significant achievement for Mr Modi. Affirmation of sorts was, in fact, available last month when the United Nations overcame long-standing opposition from China and passed a resolution designating Jaish-e-Mohammad’s founder Masood Azhar a global terrorist. 

Since the 2016 attacks on army bases in Pakistan and Uri, Mr Modi has pivoted sharply from his strategy of personal overtures to Pakistan’s then Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and replaced it with a more nuanced and integrated approach. First, he signalled a no-tolerance policy with sharp military responses (a surgical strike in 2016 and then bombing runs across the Line of Control in Balakot), with variable results. More usefully, he tapped into the growing international disaffection with Islamic terror in general to build a global consensus against Pakistan’s military-intelligence sponsorship of terrorism in Afghanistan and India. He made sure to diligently highlight Pakistan’s terror record at international forums. He has also consistently signalled that talks would be conditional on Pakistan displaying a commitment to ending its sponsorship of terror outfits in Jammu & Kashmir, categorically declining to deal with the Pakistani-sponsored separatist group Hurriyat. 

Collateral developments during the Bishkek summit underlined the rationale of this strategy. On Sunday, the Paris-based Financial Action Task Force (FATF) declared that Pakistan had failed 25 of the 27 action points for terminating funding for such groups as the Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad and its front organisations. The country was added to FATF’s “grey” list last year, which means it has been downgraded by the International Monetary Fund, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and global credit rating agencies. The absence of FATF compliance means that those downgrades will continue. The FATF’s report substantially adds to Pakistan’s economic woes since it precludes it from loans from multilateral institutions — on Monday, the ADB rebuffed the Pakistan government’s announcement that it would receive a $3.4 billion loan for budgetary support. Mr Modi has also leveraged the opportunities of India’s market by expanding on the long-standing strong relations with West Asian powers, especially Saudi Arabia, another major financial backer of Pakistan’s non-state actors. That Aramco, the state-owned oil producer, is eyeing a tie-up for a refinery in India, is another sign of a weakening of Pakistan’s ties with traditional regional allies.

Mr Modi appears to have learnt from his early mis-steps in Indo-Pak policy. He refrained from inviting Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan to his second swearing-in ceremony, and he sensibly bypassed Pakistani airspace, for which he had insultingly been given “in-principle approval”, for his visit to Bishkek. He should also focus on handling the unrest in Jammu & Kashmir, where disaffected youth create ready-made terror recruits for Pakistan’s military-intelligence complex. But for the moment, Pakistan is indubitably on the back foot.