T N Ninan: Commanding the spotlight

Mr Modi's compelling rise is only half done

There seems to be a near-unstoppability to Narendra Modi’s move to the centre of national politics. The attention his every move attracts, the closeness with which his pronouncements are analysed, the scrutiny to which his government’s record in Gujarat has been subjected, and his own increasingly clear intentions, all of these are manifestly results of the growing recognition across the political spectrum that he has seized the initiative within the principal opposition party. It is hard to think of any other politician who could have used an address to students of a Delhi commerce college to such effect as Mr Modi did this week. That he has been able to position himself as the lightning rod, without being the favourite son of either the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh or of the Bharatiya Janata Party’s central leadership, shows an ability to seize the initiative through skilful media management and showmanship, not to mention choice of issues for debate, which could be formidable qualities if he is given charge. Already, the party’s two parliamentary leaders – Arun Jaitley and Sushma Swaraj – have moved into the wings, to be barely seen or heard from. Mr Advani may have delivered the dagger blow that felled Nitin Gadkari, but Mr Gadkari had set himself up and was vulnerable, ready to be struck down. Yashwant Sinha has taken on the role of party maverick, speaking blunt truths with a lack of reserve that marks him as a lightweight. And the party’s fallback candidate as president, Rajnath Singh, is reduced to futilely instructing his party men to stop speculating on the choice of future leader.

Comparisons with those facing him across the floor, so to speak, are telling. The prime minister continues to be self-effacing to the point of invisibility. Sonia Gandhi has always led from behind, except at election time. As for Rahul, his first couple of weeks have been entirely in character — meeting, studying, assessing and giving every impression that he is yet to make his choice of lieutenants or issues to highlight. He may be casting himself as the organisation man, but if those at the barricades are being led by Mr Chidambaram on behalf of the government and Digvijay Singh for the party, it is an unequal contest because both are self-evidently political lieutenants. In terms of wattage and media magnification, Mr Modi has the drop on them.

None of this is to suggest that the Gujarat chief minister is in arm’s reach of the gaddi at what he likes to call the Delhi sultanate — and not just because state chieftains like Nitish Kumar may have a decisive say. For one thing, chief ministers have not found a way to make a mark on the national stage, Sharad Pawar being the obvious example. Mr Modi is a more convincing figure to rally the troops, but he is a loner who will use his party than the other way round. And whether he likes it or not, he does have some weights around his ankles — not just the matter of the Gujarat riots but how justice has been thwarted since, to the point where the Supreme Court has had to intervene repeatedly, transfer cases outside the state, and directly supervise investigations. Officials who have spoken up have been hounded. No one has yet made a case in court regarding Mr Modi’s culpability in 2002, but what should one conclude from his conduct since then? And the lack of regret, even acknowledgement of the horrors that happened on his watch? Playing to your political base is fine when you are on the way up, but at some point a wannabe prime minister has to reach out to everyone else. Does Mr Modi know how?