Turkish tilt: Erdogan's visit established a fresh understanding

Turkish President's 2-day visit to India would not be described as an unqualified success

On the face of it, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s two-day visit to India would not be described as an unqualified success. Fresh from a referendum that invests him with near-absolute power, Mr Erdogan called for multilateral dialogue on Kashmir and promoting dual membership in the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group (NSG) in a pre-visit TV interview. Both are red lines for India, diplomats courteously reminded him. Mr Erdogan also suggested that Turkey’s support for Indian membership of the NSG and the Wassenaar Arrangement was contingent on India expelling members of the organisation headed by the spiritual cleric, Fethullah Gülen, his current arch-enemy, a “concern” India said it had “noted”. Yet, despite the Turkish president’s overt tactlessness, fulsome hospitality from India’s President and prime minister, and a focus on areas of convergence established with greater clarity the contours of the National Democratic Alliance’s careful diplomacy with Islamic countries and West Asia, of which Turkey is emerging as a significant player.

 
Modern Turkey has traditionally been a supporter of Pakistan, evident in the close military ties between one of Europe’s largest NATO partners and India’s north-western neighbour. Escalating tensions over Kashmir and Pakistan’s emergence as a Chinese client state urgently demand stronger engagement with Ankara. Though neither side shifted from stated positions the visit, nevertheless set out a new base of understanding. Steadily expanding Indian corporate investment in Turkey — from Mahindra & Mahindra and Essar to textile and pharmaceutical companies and ONGC Videsh, which has a share in an oil and gas pipeline between Azerbaijan and southern Turkey — is no doubt one part of it, as is the growing traffic of well-heeled tourists from India. Expanding business ties — currently just $6 billion with India enjoying a small trade surplus — is critical for Mr Erdogan given the economic stagnation, escalating terrorism and growing tensions with an ailing, crisis-ridden Europe, Turkey’s traditional market. Indeed, it was Mr Erdogan’s robust statement of support for India’s long-standing wish for a permanent seat in the UN Security Council that signalled a subtle but significant shift of diplomatic emphasis.

 
Mr Erdogan’s visit can be viewed as part of a broader diplomatic engagement vis-à-vis traditional Pakistan allies. For instance, Prime Minister Narendra Modi became the first Indian prime minister to visit the UAE, home to 2.6 million Indians, in three decades in 2015 with reciprocal visits by the crown prince of Abu Dhabi and commander of the UAE armed forces in January this year. UAE is a major player in the Gulf Cooperation Council and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation. In the UN it has frequently voted against India in resolutions on Kashmir, so it is a critical element in the diplomatic offensive. The other important Pakistan ally Saudi Arabia, too, has been the recipient of India’s outreach, with Mr Modi visiting Riyadh in 2016 and engaging with senior Saudi officials on the sidelines of major summits. India, one of the world’s fast-growing major economies, was in the sweet spot to further Saudi Arabia’s interests especially because the latter was also India’s largest supplier of crude oil. How this strategy plays out over the long run will depend on India sustaining economic growth, providing the ballast for a constructive diplomatic campaign in which Turkey can play a crucial role.