Vote from the Northeast

BJP retains the commanding position

The 2023 Assembly elections in Nagaland, Meghalaya, and Tripura were not only about those who won. Those who have lost will likely become important political players as well. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has retained power in Tripura, but was unable to beat back the Tipra Motha Party (TMP), a new political force that promises to reshape politics in the state by its resolute opposition to the BJP’s citizenship law and its own demand for a separate state. The BJP has said it has nothing against the TMP except its call for a homeland for indigenous people of the state. Identity politics, which has always been a differentiator in Tripura, had been on the back burner after the BJP’s triumphant victory in the 2018 Assembly election. But the issue will not stay in the background now as the TMP readies itself as part of the primary Opposition.

In Nagaland, the BJP agreed to become junior partner of the Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP), which has returned to power. But this time, the Naga People’s Front (NPF), once a partner and the oldest political party in the Northeast, will be in the Opposition. The NPF has been in constant touch with the erstwhile underground, the Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland (Isak Muivah), and, amid disappointment about the Naga Accord, there is no telling what role the NPF will now play. In Meghalaya, the young Conrad Sangma has had a brush with reality. Having snapped ties with the BJP just before the elections, he would have to approach the party for support after failing to reach the halfway mark — the same BJP, which attacked him for only favouring his own family, and promised during the campaign that a Supreme Court judge would be appointed to investigate corruption in the National People’s Party (NPP)-led government. If it supports the NPP, the BJP will have to decide whether it is ready to overlook the corruption and nepotism with which it charged Mr Sangma. The party may offer its support conditionally with a say in the selection of the chief minister.

There is another story coming out of the election: Even in an alliance with the Congress, the Left front in Tripura, where it once rode like a colossus, managed to win only 11 seats. The alliance’s chances were spoiled by a strong showing by the TMP, which managed to bag 13 seats in the 60-member Assembly. The Congress got nothing to be pleased about, but this was not entirely unexpected. But the meagre showing of the Trinamool Congress (TMC), to which senior Congress leaders had walked over, in both Meghalaya and Tripura, shows the limits to its returns on investment outside West Bengal. It is safe to say now that after Goa and everywhere else (including Haryana) where TMC has contested elections, it should reconsider its policy of playing away matches.

And finally, this election has yielded one unquestionable winner: Himanta Biswa Sarma, chief minister of Assam, the go-to man for the BJP in the Northeast. While it may be too early to draw conclusions regarding the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, these Assembly elections did provide a glimpse of how the odds are stacked for the Opposition. There will be more such tests in the coming months.