The US presidential race seems to be coagulating into some sort of shape. For Democrats, Tuesday's Potomac primaries, so known because they took place around the eponymous river near Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia, have delivered a strong verdict in favour of Barack Obama, who now has eight straight wins over Hillary Clinton and leads in number of delegates. With John Edwards having dropped out, for the first time a US presidential contest will see a woman or an African-American as a mainline candidate. On the Republican side, John McCain has continued to pull strongly ahead of his persistent and conservative rival, Mike Huckabee. Unless the remaining primaries vote radically differently, the presidential contest is increasingly panning out as Obama versus McCain "" especially since Ms Clinton's campaign seems to be in disarray. | |
| But predicting a winner is always risky, more so in this election "" there are still several primaries to go, some of them in major states like Texas and Ohio. Mr Obama has demonstrated unquestioned charisma, pulling in support not only from predictable bases as black voters but also among educated upper-class whites. On television, he comes across as someone who is willing to face issues frankly, someone who does not feel compelled to mouth the populist words that his audience might want to hear, which is a Hillary trait. And at the moment, he has the wind in his wings. |
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| Given President Bush's poor ratings, it would seem that a Democrat should be headed for the White House next January (and the Democrat turnout in the primaries has been much heavier than the Republican), but in Mr McCain the Republicans at least have a candidate who stands a better chance than almost anyone else. In a country in which race and sexism remain contentious and polarising issues, Mr McCain has the upper hand in terms of both because he is Caucasian and male. He has the added advantage of 20 years of experience as a senator from Arizona, to Mr Obama's localised experienced in Illinois. And, of course, there's Mr McCain's Vietnam record. Unlike John Edwards, the Democrat discard, there are no controversies over his record "" his torture as a prisoner of war is well documented and adds to his stature and appeal. More important, perhaps, is that Mr McCain's agenda appears strikingly bipartisan in approach. |
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| In a country in which poverty has touched a high, and where one-sixth of the people are without medical cover, these realities are significant. America, surveys show, is more ready than ever before for a non-conversative agenda. Mr McCain is notably pro-free trade and not a fiscal conservative. He is willing to deal on global warming, and is not notably anti-gay or anti-abortionist, unlike most of his Republican colleagues; nor is he a religiously conservative like his Creationist rival, Mr Huckabee. In his approach to taxes and Big Business, Mr McCain has been independent; he twice voted with the Democrats against President Bush's tax cuts "" like a Democrat, he said the cuts were cuts for the wealthy. Overall, he has reportedly voted for higher taxes more than 50 times in his Senate career. It is ironic that Mr McCain's "progressive" agenda "" not always articulately expressed, as he admits "" had alienated the Republican right and made him the least likely candidate before the primary season began; but it is that which seems to have tilted the balance in his favour. But after eight years of the Bush presidency, he might be the right Republican candidate in the wrong year. |
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