Stay on short side of curve

Apurva Behra, 28, is anxious about the interest amount he is losing on account of the Rs 1 lakh lying in his savings account. While he is not happy with the meagre 3.5 per cent interest rate, he is yet to identify the right instrument to park his money.

Neither his financial planner nor the hours he spent on the internet trying to find the answer has been of any help. “Some say wait for three months, others talk about short-term funds. Many advise going for long-term debt funds,” said an exasperated Behra.

There are lots of people like Behra who are looking to invest in debt but don’t, as the advice they get is – wait for some more time. The reason: No one seems to be clear, at least not for the next quarter.

Signals from Mint Street indicate the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to further tighten indicative rates to combat inflation. The central bank had hiked reserve repo and repo rates by 25 basis points a couple of weeks ago.

Market experts say RBI will announce further tightening of rates in its annual policy statement on April 20. Ramkumar K, senior vice-president, fixed income, Sundaram BNP Paribas, said, “We expect 25 basis points hike in the repo rate and 25-50 basis points hike in the cash reserve ratio in the monetary policy.” If such a case, returns from bond funds are likely to be hit.

However, interest rates are not expected to rise in a hurry. “There will be a lag effect,” said a fixed income head. In the next quarter, rates may not rise more than 50-100 basis points. In these uncertain times, the best option could be short-term debt funds

Short-term debt funds predominantly invest in low-risk debt instruments such as short-term corporate debt, money market instruments that mature in up to 90 days. As a result, fund managers have to be nimble and keep realigning portfolios with existing rates.

Mahendra Jajoo, senior vice-president and head of fixed income, DLF Pramerica Asset Management Company, favours ultra short-term bond funds as they can give good returns amid rising interest rates. Ultra short-term funds or liquid-plus funds invest in one-year bonds. These are slightly more risky than liquid funds and short-term debt funds.

Fixed maturity plans (FMPs), which offered 7 per cent, should be avoided now because one no longer gets double indexation benefits. In addition, short-term FMPs don’t make much sense, given that they will be listed and investors cannot get out of them until maturity.

Corporate deposits of good companies like Tata Motors and Jindal Steel and Power are offering 8-9 per cent (from one to three years), around 1.5-2 per cent higher than bank deposits. Things could improve on this front and so one must keep a close watch.

No wonder experts said income funds could be a good investment option after a few months. “Income funds are an evergreen option for retail investors. These invest in one-three year bonds that can price in a 100-150 basis point rate hike. The investment tenure is six months to one year. Staying invested for one year will yield better results,” said Ramanathan K, head, fixed income, ING Investment Management.