Advantage Congress or BJP? Making sense of MP, Odisha by-election results

On the face of it, results to the three assembly by-elections, two in Madhya Pradesh and one in Odisha, announced on Wednesday, weren’t good news for the Congress.

But a closer look suggests the results were also a jolt to the preparations of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) for the Madhya Pradesh assembly polls, scheduled for late November, and Odisha assembly polls, which are slated to take place simultaneously with the Lok Sabha elections in April-May, 2019.

The results of the Madhya Pradesh by-elections also underlined the importance of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which had polled substantial votes in these two seats in 2013. As the Mayawati-led party usually does, the BSP didn’t field candidates in the by-elections. The Aam Aadmi Party is also likely to field candidates in the upcoming assembly polls.

In Madhya Pradesh, the Congress just about managed to retain the Mungaoli assembly seat. It won the Kolaras seat a bit more comfortably.

In Odisha, the Congress not only lost the Bijepur assembly seat to the ruling Biju Janata Dal (BJD), but its candidate was a poor third. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) candidate came in second, reinforcing the trend in Odisha politics of the BJP replacing the Congress as the main opposition party in the state.

The BJD’s victory margin of 41,933 votes over the BJP candidate was comprehensive, and indicates the continuing popularity of the Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik. The election campaign was marred by a shoe throwing incident on Patnaik, which evoked much sympathy for the leader.

In Madhya Pradesh, the Congress won the Mungaoli assembly seat by a slim margin of 2,124 votes. In the 2013 assembly elections, the Congress candidate had polled 50.74 per cent votes and won with a margin of 20,719 votes over his BJP rival.

In the bypoll, Congress’s Brajendra Singh Yadav got 70,808 votes while the BJP candidate, Baisahab Yadav, bagged 68,684. In 2013, the Congress candidate had polled 70,520 votes and BJP’s 49,801, with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) candidate having polled 12,063 votes.

In Kolaras assembly constituency, the Congress candidate won by 8,083 votes. In 2013, the Congress candidate had defeated the BJP’s by a margin of nearly 25,000 votes. In Kolaras, the BSP candidate had got 23,920 votes in 2013. The BSP didn’t contest the by-elections.

Both Kolaras and Mungaoli are primarily rural constituencies. In the run up to the by-elections, Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan had reached out to the farmers. He had also spent several days campaigning in the two seats. The Congress win in the two seats could bolster Scindia’s claim to be declared the chief ministerial face of his party for the assembly elections later this year.

The Congress party is trying to reach out to the BSP for an electoral understanding for the Madhya Pradesh assembly election.