Andhra crowd may not translate into votes for Modi

Experts say the BJP lacks credible leadership in the state and magnetic candidates to attract votes

The “phenomenal” presence of supporters of Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi at the public meeting in Hyderabad on Sunday has given hope to Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leadership that the party has fighting chance in the regions of Telangana but political analysts believe presence of a huge gathering doesn’t indicate political dividends for the party.

The Andhra Pradesh unit of BJP has collected over Rs13 lakh from supporters who had especially come from all corners of the state to listen to the speech of Modi. The state unit has already deposited Rs10 lakh for the relief work in Uttarakhand and the state leadership has expected to deposit another Rs 3 lakh in the coming days.

“Most of the people who came for the public meeting were from Hyderabad and regions of Telangana because there is complete bandh in the areas of Seema-Andhra and many people were unable to attend the meeting from these areas. The capacity of the stadium is nearly 70,000 while another 40,000-50,000 people were standing outside the venue on roads and the Nizam College ground where large screens had been put up for the supporters of Narendra Modi,” said G Krishan Reddy, the BJP President of Andhra Pradesh.

Reddy elaborated that while party had set a target of Rs.5 lakh to collect from supporters for the natural calamity in Uttarakhand, but many of the BJP workers and people who had come to listen to the speech of Modi deposited Rs100 and Rs1,000 for the cause. “A group deposited a cheque of Rs.1 lakh for Uttarakhand tragedy,” Reddy added.  

Senior BJP leaders from Andhra Pradesh are upbeat about the public meeting and believe that the party could play a decisive role in Telangana region during the election. The party leadership argues that all the regional parties, including TDP, TRS and Congress party will be forced to take note of the support people showed for the Gujarat chief minister.

“It is evident now. BJP will play a decisive role in Telangana region. The support expressed by the people was far better that the party had expected. Although it is too early to suggest that it will lead to electoral gains, BJP will be a force in the Telangana region this time,” said Muralidhar Rao, the BJP general secretary who was involved in organising the public meeting for Modi.

However, political analysts who have studied both assembly and general elections for decades caution that the presence of a huge crowd doesn’t indicate electoral gains for the party and the BJP not only lacks credible leadership in the state but the part also doesn’t have credible candidates to win elections in the assembly and Lok Sabha election.

“The turnout for the public meeting was phenomenal but the message from the public meeting was lukewarm. The message given by Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi and BJP didn’t enthuse people so much. People expected Modi to say something path-breaking but the message was neither significant nor emphatic,” said Parakala Prabhakar, political analyst who follows Andhra Pradesh politics.

Prabhakar argued that during the regime of National Democratic Alliance (NDA) when former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee used to hold public meetings in Andhra Pradesh, around 1 lakh people used to attend his public meetings but BJP candidates only managed to get 5,000 votes in the election because the party didn’t have credible candidates.

“If the BJP contests elections in Andhra Pradesh on its own the chances of getting political dividends is unlikely but if the party manages to tie-up with a significant party in the state, both BJP and the regional party will benefit from the presence of Narendra Modi in the state and the two parties will be able to perform better,” Prabhakar added.